Outfield remains intact, but a question
Developing consistency the biggest goal entering 2023
On the verge of the Orioles’ first post-rebuild season, The Baltimore Sun is breaking down the roster position by position, examining the biggest questions at each spot and who could help carry the team back to the postseason, in 2023 and beyond.
After taking a look behind the plate, in the infield and on the mound with the starting rotation and the bullpen, last up is an outfield that is expected to look the same as it did for much of 2022.
Opening day candidates
The outlook for the Orioles’ outfield entering spring training isn’t too complicated. The team will likely employ five
outfielders, and that’s the exact number the Orioles have on their 40-man roster.
Cedric Mullins is the anchor in center field, while Austin Hays and Anthony Santander are expected to be on either side of him. Last season the trio combined for 91 doubles, 65 home runs and 213 RBIs — with all three outfielders playing 145 or more games. After a down 2021 season, Santander led the Orioles in home runs (33)
and RBIs (89), but he was worse defensively than Mullins and Hays with minus-5 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs.
With the Orioles’ designated hitter spot open, that could lead manager Brandon Hyde to slide Santander into the hitteronly role and give more playing time to Kyle Stowers in either left or right field.
Last season Santander played 34 of his 152 games at DH, while Stowers appeared in 34 games as a rookie and posted a .724 on-base plus slugging percentage after his call-up. The fifth outfield spot is likely to be occupied by Ryan McKenna, who spent the
majority of 2022 in the majors and appeared in 104 games, mostly as a pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement.
The Orioles also have a few infielders with experience playing in the outfield, including Terrin Vavra and Adam Frazier.
Prospect Colton Cowser will be at Orioles spring training after reaching Triple A last season, but he’s likely to start the year in Norfolk. Other nonroster invitees who have an outside chance of making the opening-day roster, primarily in the case of an injury, are Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero — left-handed hitters with majorleague experience whom the Orioles signed in the offseason.
Biggest question Can Hays put together a full season?
It’s possible that no player on the Orioles has a wider range of potential outcomes in 2023 than Hays. With his injury history and having an up-and-down 2022 campaign, Hays has the potential to be the Orioles’ best outfielder while also having the chance of being phased out of the starting lineup.
Hays ended last season with slightly above-average offensive numbers, slashing .250/.306/.413 with 16 home runs and 35 doubles, tied with Adley Rutschman for most on the team. While his power took a slight hit compared to 2021, he was healthy for a full season for the first time since he made his debut in September 2017.
Hays was perhaps the Orioles’ best hitter in the first half of the season before his numbers declined precipitously in the second half. He hit .270 with 12 home runs in his first 85 games and just .220 with four long balls in his last 60.
If the Orioles get a full year out of the Hays who looked like a potential All-Star candidate, he would be a big boost to a team that didn’t acquire a big bat this offseason. But if his second-half struggles spill over into 2023, it’s possible Stowers sees more playing time in his place or the Orioles call up Cowser from Triple A.
“I think the biggest difference between the first half and the second half last year were some mechanical issues,” Hays, 27, said this month. “Just being able to identify what those issues were and why I was missing as many pitches as I was in the second half, and then just trying to press once I started missing my pitches to hit.
“I started to expand the zone more. Just continuing to swing at strikes and having good, clean mechanics should lead to the good first half that I had throughout the course of the season.”
X-factor
There are several players on the Orioles who could fit this bill — from Hays and his upside to Stowers if he gets consistent playing time to Cowser if he’s called up midseason. But what could be most important for the Orioles’ playoff chances is whether Mullins is able to return to the player he was in 2021, when he hit 30 homers and stole 30 bases.
While Mullins took a step back in 2022, it was far from a disappointing campaign. He wasn’t an All-Star like he was the previous year, but Mullins was still an above-average hitter who had 34 steals and was a Gold Glove finalist at a premier position. But he saw significant declines at the plate, hitting 14 fewer homers and reaching base 29 fewer times.
One area where Mullins, who is playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, can improve is against left-handed pitchers.
A former switch hitter who now hits exclusively left-handed, Mullins posted a .579 OPS against lefties last year compared to .782 versus right-handers. In 2021 Mullins’ OPS against lefties was .788.
“This will be the third year going in, so I’m looking to see the adjustments that I’ve made come to fruition,” Mullins said this month, referencing how 2023 will be his third season hitting solely from the left side.
“That’s probably my main focus.”
The future
Of the Orioles’ eight prospects who made Baseball America’s top 100 list, only one was an outfielder. Cowser, who also appeared on Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline’s lists, is the top outfielder in the Orioles’ farm system and could push for a spot on the big-league club in 2023.
Last season Cowser shot up the Orioles’ minor-league system, starting the year in High-A and ending it in Triple A. Across the three levels the 22-year-old hit .278 with 19 home runs, 36 doubles and 18 stolen bases in 138 games. However, he struggled during his brief time in Norfolk, hitting .219 and striking out in 30% of his plate appearances. If or when Cowser is called up in 2023, he would likely play one of the corner outfield spots — either replacing someone because of injury or moving Santander to a full-time DH role.
The other top outfielders in the farm system are Dylan Beavers, the Orioles’ second selection in the 2022 draft, and Heston Kjerstad, their first-round pick in 2020. Both players ended 2022 in High-A Aberdeen.