Derby winner Mage center of attention
Quality of field in question as trainers sit out Pimlico classic
At least Mage’s owners and his trainer, Gustavo Delgado, decided to run their horse in the Preakness Stakes two weeks after his unexpected triumph in the Kentucky Derby.
Because without the Derby champion — and remember, last year’s shocking winner, Rich Strike, did not try for the second jewel in the Triple Crown — this would be a grim race to hype.
There are big names aplenty among the trainers, but Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox are not coming to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore with the most accomplished 3-year-olds in their barns. Mage will not face a single returning challenger from the Derby.
Setting the quality of the field aside, the Preakness will go off in the wake of an unsettling Derby meet in which seven horses died in a nine-day span at Churchill Downs. Dark headlines detailing the sport’s troubles competed with those hailing Mage’s charge to victory.
Can the Preakness turn the Triple Crown narrative in a brighter direction? Here are five storylines to watch as Saturday’s post time draws near:
Does Mage have what it takes to become more than a nice story?
He was not as long a shot as Rich Strike the year before, but at 15-1, Mage was not exactly on the tip of handicappers’ tongues as they sorted through Derby contenders. He had run just three times and won just once, coming up short in two Derby preps against his Florida-based rival, Forte. His trainer,
Delgado, was a star in Venezuela before coming to the United States about a decade ago but had yet to break through in a race like the Derby.
Mage ensured no one will overlook him or Delgado again with his impressive move to pass Two Phil’s down the stretch at Churchill Downs. Aided by patient guidance from jockey Javier Castellano, who had never won a Derby in his Hall of Fame career, he vaulted to the top of an unsettled 3-year-old class.
Delgado and the colt’s owners did not commit immediately to a Preakness run. Of course, the Triple Crown was enticing, they said, but they had been cautious in keeping Mage out of races as a 2-year-old, and they intended to stay that way. Only after watching him thrive in morning gallops the week after his Derby win did they agree he was ready to deal with the two-week turnaround from the first leg of the Triple Crown to the
second.
Mage is easy to root for, an underdog with engaging human connections who worried they had gone over their modest budget when they purchased him for $290,000 last May in Timonium. But is he a potentially great horse?
Delgado believes that, because he was so lightly raced before the Derby, he still has room to improve. Mage won’t necessarily be able to show that growth against a weaker field at Pimlico. But he needs to win this race to gain a greater hold on the public imagination. Otherwise, he’ll join the line of recent Derby champs — Justify in 2018 was the last to also take the Preakness — who never managed to follow up their defining victories.
Is this the weakest Preakness field in recent memory?
Almost every top owner and trainer points toward the Derby, so that’s where we see the 3-year-olds thought to be best in class. The Preakness is inevitably an also-ran by comparison, but organizers could traditionally count on at least a few Derby contenders to try again in Baltimore.
Not in 2023.
Trainers simply do not feel comfortable running on two weeks’ rest anymore. Even those who have been happy to do it in the past, such as Asmussen and Keith Desormeaux, said thanks but no thanks with Derby horses Disarm and Confidence Game. Larry Rivelli didn’t seem to give much consideration to prepping Two Phil’s for an immediate rematch with Mage. Cox made the same decision with third-place Derby finisher Angel of Empire.
Forte, scratched the morning of the Derby because of a foot bruise, seemed on his way to Pimlico for a chance to retake his place atop the class. But that also proved impossible because Kentucky regulations, honored by Maryland, said he could not run for at least two weeks after being scratched by a state veterinarian.
So the Preakness is left with Mage and a bunch of horses that couldn’t accumulate enough qualifying points (save for Blazing Sevens, whom we’ll get to) to make the Derby field. Fans are left to wonder if the powers that be at the Maryland Jockey Club and the New York Racing Association will ever have serious conversations about extending the Triple Crown calendar.
The hook of Mage’s Triple Crown quest might elevate this race above last year’s edition, but the problems with attracting top 3-year-olds to the Preakness are not going away.
Sothefieldisn’tgreat,butwhichcontenders could pick off Mage?
No trainer has been hotter than Cox in recent years, and the Kentucky native will try to complete his personal Triple Crown with First Mission, the impressive winner of the April 15 Lexington Stakes.
Cox, not given to hyperbole, has spoken
glowingly of First Mission’s recent training form and potential. “I think he’s a horse that’s meant to get better with distance and age,” he said on a conference call last week.
The colt’s Beyer Speed Figure (a measure that accounts for distance and track conditions) from his Lexington victory would have fit well with the best prep performances of top Derby contenders.
He’s worthy of his status as a 5-2 second choice in the Preakness morning line.
Listed right behind him at 4-1 is Baffert trainee National Treasure, thought to be a potential top Derby contender after he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. We might look at this colt’s fourthplace finish in the Santa Anita Derby, the fact he has won just once in five career starts, and say “not good enough.”
But National Treasure has run competitively against elite competition and has flashed star potential in training. Baffert, no matter what you think of the medication violations that kept him away from the Derby the last two years, is as good as any trainer at preparing for a big race.
Many of the same things could be said of Asmussen-trained Red Route One, who has serious closing speed and appeared on track for the Derby before his disappointing sixth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. His*
results — two wins in nine career starts — don’t suggest he will make as much noise as his father, the great Gun Runner, but Asmussen has said he sees familiar energy and physical toughness in Red Route One.
Can Chad Brown swoop in for another Preakness win?
Brown’s horse, Blazing Sevens, deserves his own category given the trainer’s track record at the Preakness, which he won last year with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing.
As he did with those horses, Brown steered Blazing Sevens away from the Derby (he had enough qualifying points to make the field) in favor of keeping him fresh for the second leg of the Triple Crown.
With a third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes and an eighth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes as his most recent results, Blazing Sevens does not seem as primed for a breakout performance as Early Voting did last year. But Brown’s aptitude for analyzing fields and knowing when to pounce cannot be questioned. His approach to the Triple Crown series might not be romantic, but his owners aren’t complaining, and no one would be shocked if he’s back in the winner’s circle come Saturday evening.
Will racehorse deaths continue to haunt this Triple Crown?
For many fans, the seven deaths in the run-up to the Derby overshadowed the result of the race. Though Kentucky officials found no immediate connection between the fatal breakdowns and acted quickly to suspend trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who had two horses die suddenly and inexplicably, the death toll forced industry stakeholders to answer difficult questions about racetrack safety. The federal Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) is investigating.
Maryland officials are crossing their fingers that Pimlico and the Preakness will avoid similar scrutiny. They’re confident in the condition of the track and in strict veterinary protocols enforced by HISA’s racetrack safety program, but no one involved believes deaths are completely preventable.
Two horses died on Preakness day in 2016. Imagine the outcry if we see a repeat this year, two weeks after a death-haunted Derby.
The industry has made strides in reducing fatalities, and officials hope HISA will help give the sport greater credibility as the federal authority’s oversight kicks in. But racetrack safety is an enduring concern without a cureall solution. Underlying anxiety around the prospect of more deaths will be unavoidable this Preakness week.