Cowser, Westburg are part of a new puzzle
When top prospects arrive, and in what role, remains a mystery
To this point, when the Orioles have for the first time called up a young hitter acquired during Mike Elias’ tenure as the executive vice president and general manager, that debuting player has been one of two types of prospect.
One group is the No. 1 overall prospects. Catcher Adley Rutschman and infielder Gunnar Henderson were Baltimore’s first two draft picks under Elias, with Rutschman taken with the first overall selection in 2019 and Henderson selected atop the second round. Both rose to the top of prospect lists, and when they ascended to the majors, they immediately became regulars in manager Brandon Hyde’s lineups.
On the other end of the spectrum have been players who either narrowly cracked publications’ lists of the game’s top 100 prospects or never made them at all. Outfielder Kyle Stowers, infielder Joey Ortiz and utility player Terrin Vavra have found themselves shuffled through the same roster spots thus far this season, often serving in sporadic platoon roles while in the majors as the Orioles balance their development with major league needs.
Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg split this binary, and in that way, they present Elias and the Orioles’ front office a prospect promotion puzzle they have not yet faced in Baltimore. Each entered this week with an OPS above 1.000 at Triple-A Norfolk, showcasing on-base ability and power. Neither is in a position to follow Rutschman and Henderson as baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, but both are well-established as being among the top 100 in the game.
A 23-year-old outfielder Baltimore drafted fifth overall in 2021, Cowser is Baseball America’s No. 34 overall prospect, ranked 31st by MLB Pipeline. Westburg, a 24-year-old infielder taken 30th overall a year earlier, is 68th and 52nd on those respective lists. With Henderson graduating from prospect status this year, Baseball America has Cowser as Baltimore’s No. 3 prospect, with Westburg fifth.
Neither Stowers, Ortiz nor Vavra has been regarded as one of the Orioles’ five best prospects at any point, and only Ortiz has appeared in Baseball America’s top 100, opening this season at No. 95 and since climbing to 88th. Stowers was Baltimore’s third draftee in 2019 behind Rutschman and Henderson, with Ortiz going in the fourth round, while Vavra was acquired in a trade with the Colorado Rockies after they took him in the third round in 2018.
The trio has 83 combined plate appearances in the majors this year, with all but eight coming against opposite-handed pitchers. Despite generally having the platoon advantage, they’ve combined to hit .153 (11-for-72) in their part-time roles.
“It’s not necessarily the easiest thing in the world,” Vavra acknowledged. “But no one’s job in here is easy.”
Each has had some success while in Triple-A this year; Stowers has hit .293 with a .996 OPS, Ortiz .320 with an .895 OPS and Vavra .286 with a .333 on-base percentage, but that has yet to carry over to Baltimore in their limited opportunities.
Those outputs don’t compare with what Cowser and Westburg have done. Coming off International League Player of the Week
recognition, Cowser came into this week batting .336 with a 1.044 OPS with Norfolk, walking nearly as much as he’s struck out. Westburg spent much of last year at Triple-A, earning the Orioles’ minor league player of the year honor, and has been even better this year, with a .321 average, 1.021 OPS and 11 home runs through last week. Tuesday marked his 124th career game at Triple-A; Rutschman and Henderson played 120 combined.
“They’re ballers,” said Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin, fresh off a promotion from Norfolk. “They know what they’re doing. They know how to prepare. Colton is definitely a hell of a hitter, hell of a leadoff guy down there. He’s still young. There’s still things in maybe his process that he’s probably still figuring out. Westy, he’s swinging the bat, too. He’s really fun to watch night to night.”
But Hyde said “it’s a total crapshoot” when asked what aspects of a hitters’ Triple-A performance are most likely to translate to the majors.
“Pitching and hitting in Triple-A, it’s just such a different game,” Hyde said. “In both ways, the talent level here is remarkably different, so you just never know until a guy gets here.”
In that sense, there are no guarantees that Cowser or Westburg won’t endure the same struggles as Stowers, Vavra and Ortiz or find themselves getting different opportunities than that trio. Cowser, like Stowers, is a left-handed-hitting outfielder; although Cowser is more capable of playing center field, he’s also had less success than Stowers against left-handed pitching, making him even more susceptible to a platoon situation. Westburg, like Ortiz, is a right-handed hitter who can play around the infield, though he’s performed far better against right-handers than left-handers the past two years.
But Hyde also has avenues where he could give them regular playing time without disrupting his other starters, using the designated hitter spot, rest days and positional flexibility.
Unlike Stowers and Ortiz, neither Cowser nor Westburg is on the 40-man roster, though the Orioles’ have an opening. Rutschman and Henderson both were added to the 40-man roster in conjunction with their first call-ups, while Vavra and Ortiz were already on it; Stowers was a substitute player in Toronto for COVID-19 vaccination purposes and wasn’t required to be added to make his debut.
Of that group, Baltimore has given immediate
full-time opportunities to only Rutschman and Henderson, the former No. 1 prospects. But even they have had their early struggles. Rutschman hit .207 through his first month in the majors, then finished as the runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year and has since been one of baseball’s most productive players. After a strong September cameo, Henderson is batting .184, though he’s improved of late and has frequently drawn walks. Both players have been afforded the opportunities to push through their troubles, which hasn’t been the case for the lesser prospects, who have often been swapped out for one another through the first quarter of Baltimore’s season.
There are long-term implications looming over calling up both Cowser and Westburg. By waiting at least a couple more weeks to call either up, the Orioles could assure neither achieves Super Two status, where a certain portion of players earn an additional fourth year of arbitration eligibility based on their major league service time. In 2022, that cutoff date came about two months into the season, though it varies from year to year.
Elias said last week that calling up Westburg is “an active topic of conversation” for the Orioles; he described promoting Stowers in a similar way last fall. He also noted Cowser’s lack of experience at Triple-A, though his 64 games at the level are nine more than Rutschman and one fewer than Henderson played before their respective call-ups.
“Everything he’s doing is really encouraging,” Elias said. “If he keeps this up, he’s going to put himself in a position to help this team. But I don’t think we’re at that moment in time yet where we can say that he’s graduated Triple-A.”
Henderson already established that continued excellence can force this front office’s hand, though his call-up didn’t come until he gained seemingly needless experience on the right side of the infield and the Orioles ensured he retained rookie eligibility into this season, allowing them to potentially receive extra draft picks for his early-career performance.
Still, he was promoted more than a year before he was required to be added to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 draft protection purposes; Westburg would be eligible this winter and Cowser next.
Both are also eligible to be added to the Orioles’ roster at any time. When, and the role they land in, are to be determined.