More close games could mean close losses
NEW YORK — Orioles manager Brandon Hyde has often quipped after his team’s narrow victories that it’s acceptable for Baltimore to, on occasion, blow another team out.
The 2023 edition, despite its strong start to the season, has generally refused to oblige. Tuesday’s 6-5 walk-off loss to the New York Yankees was the Orioles’ 48th game. Only four of them have been decided by more than four runs; the most recent of those, an 8-3 victory Sunday to complete a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays, lasted 11 innings.
On Tuesday, the Orioles built a four-run advantage in the early innings, lost it in the middle frames, took a one-run lead and held it until the ninth, when Félix Bautista allowed a game-tying home run to slugging star Aaron Judge before New York won it in the 10th.
“We play so many close games, we’re bound to lose one once in a while that’s tight like that,” Hyde said.
To Baltimore’s credit, “once in a while” is apt. The Los Angeles Angels are the only other team that entered Tuesday having played more than 40 games decided by four or fewer runs, and the Orioles’ .636 winning percentage in such contests is tied for the best in baseball with the Tampa Bay Rays, the only team that has a better overall record. Their performance in these circumstances is reflected somewhat in a Pythagorean record, which estimates a team’s record based on run differential, that suggests the Orioles came into Tuesday with four more victories than would be expected.
They are closer to the middle of the league when it comes to the number of games where the margin is no more than three, two or one. But one swing can erase a four-run difference, and that often makes it a delicate balancing point, especially for a manager trying to work through a taxed bullpen.
Before Bautista’s blown save, Yennier Cano pitched two scoreless innings in his 20th appearance of the season. Six of Hyde’s relievers have appeared in at least 20 games; no other team came into Tuesday with more than five pitchers having reached that benchmark. Despite that workload, the unit entered this series in New York with baseball’s third-best relief ERA.
Hyde has been particularly delicate in his usage of Cano and Bautista, perhaps two of baseball’s best breakout stories of the past two seasons.
Although Cano has frequently been asked to record more than three outs, Hyde has been exceptionally wary of how soon after that type of outing he works again. Bautista has gone more than an inning only twice through 23 outings after 18 of his 65 appearances in 2022 lasted at least four outs, though he was only in the closer’s role for the final two months of that season.
“Obviously, as a closer, you know you’re gonna come into some tight situations and some close games,” Bautista said through team interpreter Brandon Quinones. “I’ve just got to try to do my best every single time I go out there and live with the results, whether they’re good or bad.”
There are potential solutions. Starting
pitcher Kyle Bradish, who was given a four-run lead but was unable to keep it through the fifth inning, said the Orioles’ quality defense and offense explain their propensity for close games, but the same traits could allow them to bury opponents. In the sixth inning Tuesday, they had the bases loaded with one out and again with two but managed only one run, with a drive to right from Cedric Mullins offering hope of a grand slam before dying on the track.
Continued improvement from Bradish and the rest of the rotation could help, too. The group has seven quality starts in the past 17 games after posting six in the season’s first 31 contests. But Hyde has often turned to his bullpen during or in advance of that sixth inning, leaving nearly half the game for his bullpen.
That relief corps could continue to get stronger. Mychal Givens worked a clean sixth in his second outing off the injured list, and the Orioles are nearing a decision point on Dillon Tate, whose 30-day rehabilitation assignment is nearing its end. Once the Orioles determine he’s ready for action — whether that be by Thursday or after continued working in the minors — they would add one of Hyde’s most dependable relievers from the past few seasons to a group that has also largely established itself as reliable.
That includes Cano, who after throwing 30 pitches to get six outs Tuesday will likely be unavailable Wednesday, leaving Hyde without one of his key relievers in the series’ second game. Based on this season’s track record, it figures to be close.