TOPPS PERFORMER
LEBRON’S 2003-04 TOPPS BASE RC HAS COME A LONG WAY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
Fact: In the last 12 months, the 2003 04 Topps #221 LeBron James RC holding his jersey on Dra night) has increased in value by 300
percent for non-graded NrMt copies.
In the July 2019 issue of Beckett Basketball, the card listed at $150. is month, its value has skyrocketed to $600. What’s going on?
Call it a perfect storm of strong interest in basketball, collectors priced out of the 2003-04 Topps Chrome #111 RC; the historic Topps flagship brand; and the desire to secure a key Rookie Card of a generational talent. And make no mistake – that’s what LeBron is.
“I think people just like that flagship Topps brand,” says Brian Fleischer, Beckett senior market analyst. “ at Topps Chrome RC is expensive. More people can buy the base Topps for $600 to $700. It’s like in baseball: Can’t afford the SP Jeter RC? You go a er the Topps Jeter RC. Can’t afford the Bowman Chrome autograph? You go a er the Topps Update.
“I think a lot of it is the brand and the affordability compared to the other options.”
Beckett case analysis for 2003-04 Topps Basketball has been lost to time (it has been 17 years) as well as a move of company offices from one Dallas location to another. Yet the data team’s analysis of 2001-02 Topps Basketball serves a useful purpose as a sort of blueprint for 2003-04 – helping build logical estimates. LeBron’s presence in the 2003-04 set is estimated to be between 16,000-18,000 copies released over several skews including Hobby, HTA and Retail.
One would assume, with even the most conservative outlook, the company increased production from the previous year to tap into the James hype. It’s not as if LeBron was a fringe prospect or wasn’t a familiar name. Hardly. Picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a high school player. ESPN televised one of his high school games . . . live in primetime. And of course there was the whole No. 1 overall pick thing.
Topps knew it had a waiting audience for their 2003-04 product. LeBron - and to some degree, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade - saw to that.
So here we are, in the midst of world uncertainty, and this almost 17-year-old card is a Beckett Hot List mainstay. Graded copies in Mint 9 are inching closer to $1,000. Beckett Basketball analyst Steve Dalton has seen this before. “I liken it to Steph Curry a couple years back when everyone was focusing on that [2009-10 #231] Topps rookie,” Dalton says.
So what’s the deal with the Topps Collection LeBron #221 RC? Outside of the obvious – different image, gold foil instead of silver, different player art in the lower left – it also is in shorter supply than the regular pack-pulled card. Does that make it more popular? Not necessarily. Some have said the image is too dark and murky. Others like the action shot. What it is, however, is an RC from a factory set printed in limited quantities. How limited? It’s estimated to be 1,500-2,000 – or roughly 10 percent of the pack release. It’s obviously in fewer quantities, but who knows how many unopened Topps Collection sets are sitting around?
“Topps got their Topps Collection factory set out in time for Christmas,” Fleischer says. “I would certainly think something like that – hurrying it up for the holiday – would have meant a smaller print run than the regular release, even if Topps was gearing up for LeBron.”
The population reports from BGS and PSA further illustrate the differences in quantities of the two #221 cards. BGS has graded 4,743 copies of the pack-pulled card, while only grading 437 copies of the factory set card. PSA has graded 5,333 copies of the pack-pulled card, and 430 of the factory set RC.
Is there still room for more growth for the pack-pulled #221?
“I definitely think so,” Dalton says, “especially once play starts up again and if the Lakers win a championship.”
Fleischer also doesn’t believe the card has peaked at $600.
“Will it ever be a $3,000 card? Probably not.” he says. “But it could shoot up another level or two - $800 . . . $900 . . . $1,000.”
History already has shown how a simple base card can take off (hello, 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout). Now we’re watching it happen again.