Democrats hold leads in 4 crucial races for Senate control
Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lead their Republican rivals and are running well ahead of President Joe Biden in key states where he continues to struggle, according to polls by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College.
The battleground surveys of registered voters indicate that the president’s difficulties against former President Donald Trump may not be enough to sink other Democrats, especially Senate incumbents who are facing less-well-known Republicans.
Ticket-splitters are not abundant – about 10% of Trump voters back the Democratic candidate for Senate in the four states, while about 5% of Biden supporters back the Republican.
But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance at holding the Senate, where they currently hold a one-seat majority. To maintain control, the Democrats would have to sweep every competitive Senate seat and win the White House.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat, has the support of 46% of voters, against the 41% who say they back his Republican challenger, wealthy finance executive David McCormick, although Trump holds a slender advantage in a head-to-head race with Biden, 47% to 44%.
In Wisconsin, the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, holds a wider, 49% to 40% lead over Republican banker Eric Hovde. Biden is up slightly against Trump, 47% to 45%.
In Nevada, where Biden is struggling the most, Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, narrowly leads her Republican challenger, Sam Brown, a wounded combat veteran, 40% to 38%, with 23% of registered voters undecided.
In Arizona, the one battleground state polled with an open Senate seat, Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Phoenix-area Democrat, leads Kari Lake, the Republican former news anchor who is closely allied with Trump, 45% to 41%, with 14% undecided. Trump leads Biden in Arizona, 49% to 42%.
The contrasting results underscore the power of incumbency, and how it appears to be nullified in the case of a former president challenging a sitting president. Voter after voter expressed comfort with the sitting Senate Democrat, and an almost complete lack of knowledge about the Republican challengers.
“Jacky Rosen has been around a long time,” said Brian Dickinson, a 25-year-old registered Democrat in Las Vegas who said he was considering splitting his ticket and voting for Trump. “I think she’s a very good Democrat.”
In Pennsylvania, 23% of Republicans viewed Casey favorably, while only 6% had a favorable view of Biden.
Casey “is a name that I’ve heard,” said Harry Wirebach, a 56-year-old veteran and unaffiliated voter in Croydon, Pennsylvania. Casey was first elected to the Senate in 2006; his father, Bob Casey, was a two-term Pennsylvania governor.
But that Democratic advantage has not lifted Biden’s standing, and very few respondents lacked opinions about the leading candidates for president.
“I would vote for a roadkill opossum if that was a choice over those three,” Wirebach said of Biden, Trump and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Another battleground state, Michigan, will also have a Senate contest to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow, but because the Republican candidate won’t be settled until the August primary, the Times/Siena poll did not ask Michigan voters their preference.