Picking the CFP semis: Alabama and Texas have the edge to reach the national championship game
The final four-team College Football Playoff promises to be one of the closest in the 10-year history of the event.
The combined spread of the two New Year's Day semifinals sits at six points, according to Fanduel Sportsbook. No. 1 Michigan is a 1 1/2-point favorite against fourth-seeded Alabama in the Rose Bowl. No. 3 Texas is a 4 1/2-point favorite over No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
That's the smallest combined line for the CFP semifinals since the 2017 playoff, when Georgia beat Oklahoma in overtime at the Rose Bowl as a 2 1/2-point favorite and Alabama was favored by 3 1/2 against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl and rolled over the Tigers.
The matchups that will decide each CFP semifinal, with the winners advancing to the Jan. 8 championship game in Houston.
ROSE BOWL
Alabama's offense and quarterback Jalen Milroe have been a work in progress this season. Recent Crimson Tide teams have paired eventual firstround draft pick quarterbacks with a bevy of star receivers to create explosive offenses.
This isn't that. Alabama is 30th in the country in yards per play (6.36) and has allowed 43 sacks, a woeful 123rd nationally, while throwing only 302 passes (122nd nationally).
“The big question will be which Alabama offensive line shows up because the one we saw against Georgia (in the SEC championship game) was dominant. There have been times this year where they have been a flat-out liability," Cole Cubelic, who works as an analyst for ESPN and the SEC Network, said on the AP Top 25 College Football Podcast.
Michigan doesn't have one player up front defensively that stands out as a star — the way Alabama All-america edge rusher Dallas Turner does — but they are deep and committed to stopping the run, often with eight players close to the line of scrimmage.
Michigan will want to put the game in Milroe's hands. Early in the season that seemed like the way to beat Alabama, whose only loss was by 10 points at home to Texas. Now, less so.
Milroe is 6-foot-2, 220 pounds with speed and a powerful arm. He is a player with differencemaking skills, but his game has holes, especially as a mid-range passer. Milroe will miss some open throws, but he has thrown only six interceptions and Alabama has lost only four fumbles.
Tide offensive coordinator Tommy Rees doesn't call many designed runs for Milroe. He might need to dip into the bag in the Rose Bowl.
“They're going to have to do that to have some success on the ground,” said Mike Kuchar, the cofounder of the X&O Labs football research company. “I don't see them lining up and coming downhill on Michigan's defense at all.”
Michigan allowed 4.28 yards per play, fourth in the nation. The numbers suggest an elite defense, but beware: The Wolverines saw few potent offenses in the Big Ten.