PLUS: TRUMP’S SUPPORT ERODING IN GOP

For the past few months, Donald Trump has dominated news coverage of the Republican presidential race, making it difficult for other candidates to gain traction over the course of the summer.

But results from our most recent poll suggest Trump’s comments about Mexican immigrants, and his combative response to questions raised during the recent Fox News presidential debate, seem to be dividing Republican voters in New Hampshire.

On the one hand, Trump’s support remains strongest among disaffected Republican voters. Among Republicans who are very dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, Trump outperforms his nearest competitors by a margin of more than 2-to-1.

His supporters are also much more likely to back his candidacy because they think he would lead in a new direction. Trump has benefited from his appeal to Republicans who share his passionate desire for political change. But there is evidence that continued media coverage of Trump’s debate performance — and his continued defense of his comments made during the debate — is eroding his support.

When we started our poll (conducted Aug. 7-10) the day after the debate, our results showed Trump with a commanding lead at 30 percent of the vote. But over the course of the next three evenings, as coverage of the Trump campaign continued to attract

scrutiny, his support faded. On the last night of calling, Trump was polling at just 15 percent.

It’s important to be cautious when interpreting dayto-day polling results, but the data provides suggestive evidence that continued media coverage of the controversy related to Trump’s comments may very well be eroding his support, especially among women. When the final results were tallied, Trump registered a favorable rating of 39 percent among female voters, versus an unfavorable rating of 55 percent.

So which candidates are best-positioned to fill a hypothetical void if Trump continues to stumble?

The poll suggests that one candidate with a lot of potential is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Among Trump’s detractors, Rubio was widely perceived as the winner of the recent presidential debate. Rubio also has the highest favorable rating of all the Republican candidates (62 percent) and a relatively lower unfavorable rating (21 percent).

If Rubio were to make more visits to the state, and run as many ads as his rivals, he could very well be positioned to gain traction with Republican voters in New Hampshire.