Tide turns for Sanders, but N.H. still fond of Hill

Once the undisputed front-runner in the race for the New Hampshire Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton now finds herself in a dogfight with Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.

At first glance, the numbers seem shocking. If the New Hampshire presidential primary were held today, 44 percent of likely Democratic voters would choose Sanders and 37 percent would vote for Clinton. Just five months ago, Clinton held a commanding lead over her potential rivals.

What happened, and what does it mean for Clinton’s candidacy?

Well, it’s not that surprising, and — in the long run — could turn out to be one of the best things for the Clinton camp. Similar to the way Donald Trump has energized the most disaffected Republican voters early in the race, Sanders has largely done the same thing among the liberal wing of the Democratic base.

Among self-identified very liberal Democratic voters, Sanders (60 percent) clobbers Clinton (39 percent). He’s been very outspoken and has promoted an unwavering progressive agenda. And when asked why they support their candidate, Sanders’ voters disproportionately cite his position on the issues (68 percent) while Clinton’s voters cite her political qualifications (34 percent), as well as her position on the issues (28 percent).

While Sanders has gained on Clinton, she remains popular with Democratic voters in New Hampshire. Sanders has a very high favorable rating of 76 percent. But Clinton’s favorability rating tops 80 percent.

Sanders has been very aggressive and very effective connecting directly with Democratic voters who are more inclined to pay attention early in the contest. But beyond her overall favorability, there are other factors that could work to Clinton’s advantage.

First, she is still widely perceived as the presumptive front-runner, which gives her an advantage in momentum. Two-thirds of Democratic voters, 65 percent, believe that she will end up winning the Democratic nomination, compared with just 11 percent for Sanders. And second, in all likelihood, Clinton will benefit from being engaged in a more competitive primary contest.

Many observers have lamented that she has a lot to lose by running her campaign as a coronation rather than a competition. Sanders’ rise in the polls has clearly changed that calculus, and Clinton will need to run a different type of campaign if she wants to win New Hampshire’s first-in-thenation primary.

To do so, Clinton needs to excite Democratic voters, especially on important issues, something she’s been unable to do so far. In fact, 51 percent of Democrats say they could support Clinton’s candidacy, but they’re not enthusiastic about it.

For now, Sanders’ ability to attract voters could very well aid his ability to attract donors. What was once a somewhat uninteresting race now promises to be much more exciting.