Card: Poll numbers may signal erosion
A longtime Clinton adviser admitted being “a bit surprised” by the stunning Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald New Hampshire Democratic poll results that showed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders surging past front-runner Hillary Clinton, as politicos reacted on Boston Herald Radio yesterday.
Terry Shumaker tried to downplay the importance of the numbers six months out from New Hampshire’s first-in-thenation primary.
“Polls go up and polls go down,” said Shumaker, a veteran of Clinton’s 2008 run and a twotime co-chairman of Bill Clinton’s New Hampshire presidential campaigns. “In 2008 she was up by 30 points in New Hampshire, then she was 11 points behind in the last poll and ended up winning the state by 3. I think we can get carried away with polls.”
But Franklin Pierce president and longtime Republican adviser Andrew Card countered that the early numbers can be signs of dangerous turbulence ahead.
“The Bernie Sanders experience for Hillary Clinton is not unlike the experience Bush 41 had with Pat Buchanan,” Card said, citing the GOP pundit’s 1992 challenge to President George H.W. Bush, particularly Buchanan’s strong showing that year in the Granite State. “For those of us involved with Bush 41 — we didn’t get hit with a 2x4, we got hit by an 8x10. It was a tough hit and it empowered Ross Perot.”
Card, who served as deputy White House chief of staff during the first Bush administration, said the poll results, which showed Sanders with 44 percent support among likely primary voters to Clinton’s 37 percent, are “delivering a message” to the Clinton campaign.
“We have to remember it is early in the process, but the reason these polls are relevant is because it tells you what you have to do as a candidate,” Card said. “This is where organization counts. You find the people who are warmly inclined to support you and turn it into hot passion.”
Kelly Myers of RKM Research and Communications, who conducted the poll, said the results should be “an important wake-up call” for the Clinton campaign.
“This is a clear indication that we can no longer think about her campaign as a coronation,” Myers said on Herald Radio. “Hillary Clinton has stagnated. She is dogged by questions about email and Benghazi and the lack of attention she pays to the media ... and it has built up.”
The data, complied from a sample of 442 likely Democratic primary voters from Aug. 7-10, also leaves Clinton with a significant enthusiasm gap, with 51 percent saying they could support her, but that they are unenthusiastic about her candidacy.