Costly mistake kicks off our year
The bad news? It only took one prediction for me to make a dumb mistake. The good news? There are 15 more weeks plus the postseason to atone for it.
My first piece of brilliant advice this season was to take the under in yesterday’s AFC showdown between the Patriots and Bills. I was mesmerized by all the talk about Buffalo’s ferocious defensive front, and I didn’t think Tyrod Taylor could generate more than 17 points.
This, however, is the NFL, which is as unpredictable as upstate New York weather. Conditions were perfect at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and neither offense had trouble moving and scoring. In the end, the Pats held on for a 40-32 victory, easily covering in a pick ’ em game. The total had been set at 44, so under wasn’t a very good choice. In fact, it was awful. The teams breezed past 44 points late in the third quarter.
In hindsight, which allows everyone to be expert handicappers, it was a layup to take the Pats. After the season opener against the Steelers, I thought they would be healthy favorites in Buffalo. Granted the Bills hadn’t upset the Colts yet, but even that win shouldn’t have been enough to reverse years of sound beatings delivered by Bill Belichick in this division rivalry. Buffalo just shouldn’t be a pick ’em or favored the Pats, ever, unless the teams magically switch quarterbacks and coaches.
The Patriots got their first win against the spread this season. They are 1-0-1 by the number, and there has been one under and one over.
Next week, the Pats host the NFL’s lovable losers, the Jaguars. There is plenty of optimism from their dozens of fans about better things for the Jags, but they’re still the Jags, and they opened as 121⁄ 2- point underdogs against the undefeated Patriots.
It’s hard to tell if we can trust the Pats defense enough to keep anyone below 20 points, allowing the offense to score 30-35 to cover big spreads. Some people also will clamor this is a trap game for the Patriots, who have a big test in Week 4 against the Cowboys at Jerry World. That’s hogwash if you ask me. Belichick is a champion of making sure the players only worry about the game in front of them.
Let’s take the Patriots to cover next week, even if the line swells to two touchdowns. The defense should play better at home against a team that’s improved but still much worse than the Steelers. Plus, you know Tom Brady will get the offense in the end zone four or five times.
In the spirit of atoning for yesterday’s big mistake, let’s also take the Seahawks to cover (opened as 91⁄ 2- point favorites) at home against the Bears, who are a hot mess right now. Two gambling wins and another Pats victory will make everyone forget about this first hiccup.