Bring on all the stats you want
But Sox pitchers must pitch better
As Dave Dombrowski was explaining the elevation yesterday of Brian Bannister to the uniformed role of assistant pitching coach in charge of statistical analysis, two thoughts came to mind.
First was that the way things have been going for the pitching staff it can’t hurt. Second was its unlikely Nolan Ryan ever walked off the pitcher’s mound asking “What was my spin rate?’’
Point being, if you can pitch it doesn’t matter much and if you can’t it won’t help much.
Bannister, however, is a devotee of the speculative venture known as “sabermetrics,’’ a faith in numbers that seemingly tries to argue sport is actually science, which it is not. Bannister was a big league pitcher for five years and is the son of former All-Star pitcher Floyd Bannister, who led the American League in strikeouts in 1982 and pitched 15 years very likely without ever knowing his spin rate so he knows better.
Nevertheless, the Sox are desperate to come up with something to right their listing pitching staff and since reinforcements don’t seem to be in the high minors or on the trading block, Dombrowski opted for science. At this juncture, what’s there to lose?
The added presence of Bannister in uniform and on the road, laptop in hand, was viewed as a classic “nothing to see here’’ event, though there clearly was something to see and it was reinforced last night, his first on the new job, when David Price gave up a home run on his first pitch and closer Craig Kimbrell allowed three hits and four runs on 12 pitches to turn a one-run ninth-inning deficit into a 7-2 blowout at Fenway Park.
“We thought it would be the best way to make it work in cohesion with (pitching coach) Carl (Willis),” Dombrowski explained. “It’s not that we’re unhappy. But we’re looking for any way to make ourselves better. I don’t mean to say, by any means, that you don’t try to get better from a talent perspective also, which we will continue to try to do. But there’s a lot of work to be done, and we think it maybe gives us a little bit of an edge and will help us improve.”
Dombrows k i said Bannister had been delivering his analysis directly to Willis and manager John Farrell but his elevation to uniformed status for the rest of the season implies the message was not being fully delivered or absorbed. One will see if the availability of spin rates and exit velocity (speed with which a ball leaves the bat) will change anything for the beleaguered starters, who Dombrowski characterized as “scuffling.’’ Certainly it didn’t in the first inning last night.
Price’s first pitch was sent flying into the stands and by the end of the inning the Sox were down 2-0. Can’t tell you what the spin rate was of the pitch Shin-Soo Choo hit but I can tell you the exit velocity out of the yard: fast.
“We’re trying to do everything we can to help it,’’ Dombrowski said. “We’ll see what happens. I thought a couple of guys would perform better that haven’t. Our fourth and fifth starters’ ERA is over seven. That’s not good enough to win if that continues.’’
One doesn’t need to be a sabermetrician to understand that. Nor does one need to be a baseball lifer to understand yesterday was a sign Sox management is scuffling too. The failure of its starting rotation, especially in the first inning, has been stark so, if you don’t have better pitchers on the way, you try to get better information and hope for the best.
According to Dombrowski, Bannister will not be around during games, instead watching from the clubhouse or stands. Whether this might result in mixed messages was dismissed by Farrell as unlikely because Bannister was already providing him, and at least indirectly to some of the Sox’s struggling pitchers advanced stats. Of course if that’s true, why the need to put Bannister in knickers and a ball cap?
“We thought it would be that much more helpful to put him in uniform,’’ Dombrowski explaind. “The players in today’s game really want the type of information that he supplies — statistical, analytical, arm angles. They want to see these type of things.”
Farrell concurred but when Price came out in the second and gave up a leadoff single and had runners on first and second with one out it wasn’t data that saved him. It was some nasty pitches that struck out All-Star second baseman Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre to end the inning.
That’s the true answer to the Sox’ dilemma. Bannister’s mastery of advanced statistics may tell them a story but it’s not going to provide many answers to why the first inning is now a minefield or why much of the bullpen is struggling to get people out. Those answers aren’t going to come from Bannister, Willis, Farrell or even a computer printout.
They’ll either come from the pitchers getting people out or from Dave Dombrowski bringing reinforcements in. Old-fashioned answers to an age-old problem but the only ones they truly are.