Doozy of a debate now taking shape
Edge to Clinton on preparation, but TV is Trump’s turf
How do you provide pregame analysis for a reality show of a presidential campaign where the voters want both candidates thrown off the island? Welcome to the quandary of predicting the winner and loser of next Monday night’s presidential debate.
This is a contest between two politicians with astronomically high unfavorable ratings. Donald Trump is perceived to be an uninformed braggart at best and a bully beyond contempt at second best. Hillary Clinton has been defined as a congenital liar, a term coined in a 1996 essay by New York Times columnist William Safire. She has consistently reinforced this moniker with a history of fabrications and lies about a multitude of issues surrounding her public service.
The one prediction that is certain is the audience for the first general election debate of 2016 will be a ratings blockbuster. A massive record-breaking audience will watch the debate, and social media will be close to meltdown as viewers take to Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat and every other outlet available to scorch both candidates in real time.
A second prediction that is certain is that the punditsphere will go crazy. The partisan talking heads who dominate cable news will be in high dudgeon trying to protect their favorite candidate and brutalize the rival. Much screaming will ensue. The power of social media and variety of political websites will provide some checks and balances to the formerly almighty broadcast and cable outlets.
Predicting the winner and loser is a fool’s errand. In politics it is said, “better lucky than good,” and due to the vast uncertainty that has dominated the presidential campaign, let’s hope the following ideas have lady luck as a guide.
Neither Clinton nor Trump has a demeanor built for debates. Clinton is prickly, verbose and prone to unforced errors. Trump is arrogant, condescending and uninformed. But when the chips are down and the candidates are forced back off of their talking points, Clinton’s ability to stay icy cold is better than Trump’s tendency to shrug, throw up his large hands and tune out.
Big time political debates require a unique set of skills. Having a command of the facts, especially with questions focusing on very specific details of policy, issues and global events forces specificity that is a weakness of Trump’s. Clinton overcompensates by running off a litany of details that causes the voters eyes to glaze over. Better to bore the voter than create a feeling that a candidate doesn’t have enough knowledge to be president. Advantage again to Clinton.
The voter should be well-informed and make a rational decision on election day. But the fact remains that emotion is frequently the key driver when casting a vote. It is said America elects the candidate it wants in its living room every night for the next four years, and Trump has been a regular on TV screens for a long time. Although a polarizing figure, he has the advantage of knowing how to communicate via the flat screen much better than Clinton does. Many consider presidential debates to be a TV show, and Trump has home field advantage here.
Perhaps it all comes down to the unexpected event that the voters and the media fully expect, or at least hope for, during a high-pressure debate. Many of these surprise moments are part of the planning as each candidate prepares for the showdown. Of course no one believes Trump has prepared for the first debate, instead relying on his skills and experience as a TV performer. Clinton will have a multitude of lines at the ready to bait Trump into the gaffe or error that will knock him off his game and Clinton is more practiced at deflecting issues that probe her major weakness, the home-brew email server. She again has the slight advantage here.
What if Clinton has a coughing jag, Lester Holt places his finger on the scale or either candidate provides the gaffe that America is waiting for? Then the clock will be quickly running out for the perpetrator of the historic error.
If all goes according to plan, Trump will implode and Clinton will build an insurmountable lead in polls. The election will be over. Except nothing in Campaign 2016 has gone according to plan.