SOX SIT AT HEAD OF CLASS IN AL FIELD

The question is not if, it’s who. As in: Who are the Red Sox going to face in the playoffs this October? Who should they fear the most?

We’re going to hold off focusing on a potential National League opponent in a World Series. It’s the Division Series and American League Championship Series that are most important and compelling when it comes to the Red Sox, whose grasp on the AL East looks mighty secure. The two wild card spots are way up in the air, but what is settled are the strengths and weaknesses of each team with just one week remaining.

With a nod to the importance that run prevention plays in the playoffs, defense plays a major role in the following rankings — see the Mets’ flaws in the World Series last year for a reminder. Offensively, it’s not that hard to tell which clubs score and rake best, but as the Royals highlighted the last couple of years, a lineup that makes lots of contact and does not swing and miss much plays well in October when the caliber of pitchers is at its best. There’s no magic formula, though. A team with a lights-out bullpen needs a serviceable rotation and vice versa. And if somebody morphs into Madison

Bumgarner a la 2014, all bets are off. Here’s how the top eight AL playoff contenders rank. Not for how each got to the playoffs, but for how their style will play there.

1. Red Sox

It’s no secret that the Red Sox possess the best offense in either league. They score runs at a substantially higher clip than anybody else — about three-quarters of a run more per game than the AL’s next best, Cleveland. They hit at a higher clip and draw an above-average amount of walks, so the bases are frequently full. The Red Sox run those bases very aggressively, just one more worry for opposing pitching staffs and defenses. Of the big seven contenders, the Red Sox strike out less often than any of them. They swing and miss at the fewest pitches and make contact at a higher rate than any other team, things that matter in October.

The Indians and Astros have better overall defenses, but the Red Sox are not far behind. Up the middle and in all three outfield spots, they are superb. Hanley Ramirez is below average at first base, but Ramirez looks like Mark Grace compared to what he looked like as a left fielder.

Only the Astros can boast a pitching staff with numbers as good as the Red Sox, but that’s mainly because of how strong Houston’s bullpen is. The Red Sox staff is more balanced. And while there are question marks about their Nos. 3 and 4 starters, it’s not a crisis. The bullpen, performing at a nearly unbelievable level the past month, will be tested in the coming weeks.

2. Blue Jays

When the Blue Jays wake up, they’re going to be very dangerous. For some reason, the lineup has been only good, not great this season — Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and many others should pound the ball as a group. Donaldson in particular has cooled of late, but he’s still playing despite some nagging injuries. The Blue Jays got to the ALCS last year primarily due to this offense, and even though this is mostly intuitive, their offense poses a serious risk if it can advance.

Defensively, the Blue Jays qualify as one of the better contenders, putting up UZR and defensive WAR numbers not too dissimilar from the Red Sox.

The Blue Jays are deceptively strong on the pitching front. Their deep rotation lacks a true No. 1, but they have the equivalent of three No. 2’s in Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada, plus

R.A. Dickey. Their starters’ ERA is the lowest of any contender this season, plus the rotation’s fWAR is tops as well. Roberto Osuna is a very good closer atop a solid bullpen.

That the Blue Jays have played uninspired baseball down the stretch is a real concern, but they are anything but finished. Once a team with this many strengths reaches a postseason series, it has the ability to pose a dangerous threat.

3. Indians

A discussion of the Indians can’t begin without pointing out the terrible blow of losing two of their three best starters, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, to injuries. (Imagine this happening to Rick

Porcello and David Price.) Yet dismiss the Indians as having no shot at your own risk.

This team still has plenty of weapons. Its offense resembles the Red Sox’ more than any other,

especially in its ability to make contact and not swing and miss. Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana are the big boppers and the complementary pieces — Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose

Ramirez and speedy Rajai Davis — are all tested and dangerous.

Defensively, this is a cohesive, tight-as-a-drum unit. That counts for a great deal in the club’s run prevention department.

How are the Indians going to compensate for the loss of Carrasco and Salazar? They will be forced to walk a delicate tightrope. They still have Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Kluber might win the Cy Young. The latter is inconsistent, but is still capable of shutting down any lineup any day. They likely will have to pitch on short rest throughout the month, a risky and unknown venture for both, while Mike Clevinger, Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson will be thrust into rotation roles far above their weight class.

4. Tigers

The rest of the field, beginning here, trails by a significant margin.

Detroit is one of those “middling” good teams that has its share of superstars — Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera — yet falls short in complementary players. Still, if its offense can wake up, the Verlander-led rotation with Michael Fulmer, Matt

Boyd, Daniel Norris and, if he recovers from his neck injury, Jordan Zimmermann can work. Closer

Francisco Rodriguez, who feels like he has been pitching since the late ’70s, is having a great season, although his supporting cast is nothing special.

Defensively, this team’s almost the worst. Cabrera does not move well at first base and Nick Castellanos is not known for his glove at third. Up the middle, the Tigers got a lot better when shortstop Jose

Iglesias got healthy again, and second baseman Ian Kinsler is really good. In the outfield, Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez are there for their bats.

Speaking of bats, the Tigers have not been able to be a consistent threat. They have some good sluggers, but Upton has been less than advertised. There are just too many ways for a savvy pitching staff to attack them.

5. Rangers

Texas’ win total and ease in winning the West belies some statistics that point toward this team not being built to play deep into the postseason.

Defensively, the team is ordinary — not bad, but nobody besides Adrian Beltre at third base is a standout at their position according to UZR. Like most good teams from Arlington, the Rangers know how to hit and score runs, but they do not excel in any one department. Texas hits, slugs and gets on base like the Indians, but doesn’t have their speed and strikes out a lot. The pitching does not add up.

Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish are faltering over the last month, leaving Martin Perez as the best starter of late. The bullpen has a pretty good closer in Sam Dyson, but the rest is in flux, with nobody stepping up.

6. Astros

Houston is built to play deep, but is missing a key ingredient: Ace Dallas Keuchel, whose ailing shoulder may only allow him to pitch in the second half of October. As good as Collin McHugh has looked, he cannot carry this rotation alone.

What the Astros do have going for them in a significant way is that bullpen, which like the Royals the last two seasons is the best by a wide margin. Ken Giles has been the closer lately, but Luke

Gregerson and Will Harris can and have stepped into that role.

Another force in Houston’s favor is its defense, which has the highest overall UZR-150 among these contenders. The outfield, featuring Colby Rasmus, Jake Marisnick and George Springer, is tops in the league. The middle of the infield, with shortstop Carlos Correa and second baseman Jose Altuve, is only mediocre according to the defensive metrics, while Houston has two good defensive catchers in Evan Gattis and Jason Castro.

The Astros offense is the weakest among this bunch. They don’t hit for average, get on base or slug at anything approaching an impressive rate. Plus they make the least contact and swing and miss the most, which means they lead the league in strikeouts.

7. Mariners

The M’s have hung in all season, but there are no underlying indicators to suggest they are going to turn it on strong in the next week, or can hang against the better, deeper, more elite contenders. Their defense is worse than every other team in this article, a major strike against them. Offensively, they are middle of the pack, not doing much of anything better or much worse than any other team.

They have pretty good pitching overall, but the rotation is thin, topped by Felix Hernandez. The bullpen is also so-so, although closer Edwin Diaz has a dazzling arm.

8. Orioles

The sweep at the hands of the Red Sox last week tells you all you need to know. Their pitching, particularly that rotation, cannot handle a deep lineup and their bullpen needs more than closer

Zach Britton. The club plays poor defense.

Watching how easily the Red Sox pitchers were able to get swing-and-miss power threats

Manny Machado and Chris Davis to chase high pitches, their flaws were exposed.