Bad arm angle
Starting depth at Triple A lacks reliability
The Red Sox have a deep rotation. That’s different than saying they have great starting pitching depth, which they don’t.
We’re talking about a lack of Triple-A pitchers who can step in when injuries or struggles happen. There’s no easy way to fix that problem with big-market muscle-flexing, either.
It’s a counterintuitive obstacle in roster-building. You can go out and sign an ace, but it’s harder to find an ideal second-stringer, one who can freely move between the majors and minors.
Young kids are the ones who can do that. And by the time guys hit free agency, they are out of minor league options.
For most teams, it’s hard enough to find five reliable starting pitchers, so let’s be clear we’re talking about a sliding scale. When you’re rolling out a spot starter — a No. 8, if you will — you’re not asking for the world.
Few teams have a lead group of starting pitchers that compare to the Red Sox. (The Mets and Indians are in the conversation.)
But it’s still a numbers game.
Even if Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price stay healthy and account for the same number of starts they did a year ago, an even 100, roughly 40 percent of the regular season starts are left to others.
There are questions attached to Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez, who enter spring training in a race for two spots. Rodriguez has minor league options, so he has the worst odds.
But regardless of how it shakes out, there’s a better chance David Ortiz walks into JetBlue Park today to declare he’s playing in 2017 than there is of seeing five or six starters carry the Sox from start to finish.
And once they hit No. 7 and beyond, the reliability falls off a cliff.
The 2016 Sox used 10 different starting pitchers. The 2013 Red Sox used 11, the same number as the World Series champion Chicago Cubs last year.
Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Sean O’Sullivan and Roenis Elias started a combined 16 times last year. The Sox were 10-6 in those games, owed more to their great hitting than the pitching, with just two quality starts in the bunch: one each from Owens and Kelly. The latter received an average of 5.9 runs of support in his starts.
This year, Owens, Elias and Brian Johnson are the first line of defense, in whatever order.
Unless Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski traded for a young pitcher with options (and those guys aren’t cheap), there’s not much he could have done this winter.
Ideally, you have top prospects and a gaggle of pitchers with lower potential, a high floor and a decent chance to contribute.
Enough guys throwing 90 with decent control, and maybe you’ll find a diamond in the rough. Pawtucket’s just rough. Owens is young but not a top prospect. He likes long innings and walks. Elias is a rare 28-year-old with options and some strikeout ability, but he’s hittable. Johnson, who came out of the University of Florida, fits the bill of that potential diamond in the rough.
But where’s the big arm? Where are the other mature arms and minds that could pan out? Rushing some young international signee from Single A never is a good idea.
The scene still can change. After spring training, some veteran pitchers will be let go, and the Sox can add to Pawtucket’s roster.
But once that guy is called up to the bigs, the Sox can’t send him back without putting him through waivers. They risk losing him to another team because veterans don’t have minor league options.
The Sox need more choices, better choices, and drafting well is the best fix. Pick up some pitchers with high floors but low ceilings at opportune rounds.
The Sox need to develop an ace. Everyone knows that.
In the meantime, they have to find a couple more Brian Johnsons.