LINGERING QUESTIONS AFTER LONG SPRING
FORT MYERS — It’s not been enough, but we learned a great deal about the 2017 Red Sox this spring.
Chris Sale looks as if he’s remarkably well-equipped in both stuff and poise to thrive with the Red Sox. Christian V azquez, another year removed from his Tommy John surgery, has regained his cannon of a throwing arm.
But even when you throw in tidbits such as the four best ping-pong players on the team are probably Sale, Chris Y oung, Mookie Bet ts
and Joe Kelly, and that the clubhouse is much quieter without
David Or tiz, the Red Sox puzzle adds up to what, exactly? An incomplete picture. Spring training has been long, but not long enough to answer key questions that need to be answered in the affirmative before the Red Sox can claim to have made lasting improvements on their good-but-notgreat 2016 edition.
Here are the team’s top 10 unsolved mysteries:
1. Will David Price's elbow heal?
This list could begin and end here, because nearly everything else flows from it. The Red Sox’ run-prevention strategy, starting pitching depth, bullpen usage — you name it, it’s riding on Price’s unique and precious elbow. It’s deeply concerning Price is yet to be cleared for even a modest throwing program with barely more than a week left in camp, but clearly the Red Sox are taking a conservative tack with his recovery. Assuming Price does recover, it’s much more important that he’s available and chipping in for the second half of the season after missing the first rather than vice versa.
We just don’t know if and when he’s going to be back to being himself. That uncertainty looms over everything else.
2. Do they have enough starting pitching depth?
The team takes issue with the idea that it did not stock up on enough starting pitching over the winter. Free agents did not want to sign with the Red Sox, the team says, because the pitchers did not think they’d have a shot at cracking the rotation.
Perhaps the Red Sox should not have taken no for an answer because the depth they were satisfied with in January and February is unsatisfactory now.
That’s mainly due to poor performance and injuries to the three PawSox starters — Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Roenis Elias — as well as lingering concerns about exactly how durable Drew Pomeranz is. Kyle Kendrick helps, big time, as do the spring training showings of Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez, but with Price out, there is not much margin of error remaining.
3. Is the Pablo Sandoval overhaul for real?
The eye doesn’t lie. Sandoval has looked and played the part of a plain old above- average third baseman all spring. He’s slim (for him), his footwork is quick, his hands are soft, he’s got more range on defense. At the plate, he’s been hitting for some power and with consistency as a left-hander, but he’s not walking much and not looking that comfortable hitting right-handed. The bottom line? He’s resembling the Giants producer who might have warranted the massive five-year, $95 million investment. The mystery is: How will he hold up? Sandoval’s 30 years old. Still not ancient in baseball terms, but it’s more of a wish than a lock that he can regain his bona fides as a real contributor. His story’s worth rooting for, but he’s going to need all six, maybe seven more months to write a happy conclusion.
4. Can the offense remain elite without David Ortiz?
Taking into account that the Red Sox essentially decided that Ortiz was irreplaceable and increased run prevention was the answer, I can’t shake that scoring a few runs every now and then remains a winning strategy.
This is a very good lineup. Up top, Betts is a legitimate superstar,
Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez are skilled, proven hitters, and
Xander Bogaer ts, even dropped to the bottom half of the batting order, is hardly chopped liver and could/should grow into his power any day now. The bottom half, though, has much to prove. I won’t be surprised if Andrew Benintendi hits better than .300 and tops 20 homers this year, but he’s a rookie.
Mitch Moreland? He has pop, and he strikes out a bunch. Jackie Bradley Jr. has improved, but he’s been streaky at the plate. Sandy L eon and Christian Vazquez are not reliable sources of offense.
Run production is going to take a dip. Just how much is up in the air.
5. Has Craig Kimbrel solved his 2016 struggles?
Kimbrel’s debut season was not a bust, but it fell short of expectations. Everything came as advertised in terms of strikeouts and hits/home runs allowed, but you cannot have a closer walk 5.1 batters per nine innings pitched. Kimbrel blew two saves and lost six games against 31 conversions. Good, but not what the Red Sox thought they were getting when the blockbuster deal was made.
Was it the league switch? The spotlight? New England? His knee problem? Kimbrel must reassure everyone that he’s not one of those closers who simply went from elite to average in the blink of an eye. Given the high price in prospects paid to the Padres for him, a reversion to form pretty much needs to happen.
6. Is Drew Pomeranz going to be healthy?
Of the three big trades Dave
Dombrowski made in 2016, the one he made with the Padres is still unsettling. He paid a high price in prized starting pitching prospect anderson espinoza, then learned San Diego did not fully disclose medical information about Pomeranz’ elbow. That’s a poor start to any trade. Pomeranz generally looked like a pitcher the Sox bought too high on, then received a stem cell injection in the elbow this offseason, and spent this spring on the slow track looking less than sharp. Detect a trend here? The Red Sox need a sustained dose of good, encouraging news about Pomeranz, and that simply hasn’t happened yet.
7. Will Hanley Ramirez handle transition to DH?
To assume Ramirez will slide right into Ortiz’ old role without an adjustment period probably is not wise, given how often hitters report underestimating the mental challenge of staying sharp when not playing a defensive position. The ranks of elite designated hitters are few, and the Red Sox were spoiled with Ortiz. It helps Ramirez’ chances that he’s going to be playing first base every now and then, because the more he’s engaged with a game, playing a position where he is comfortable, the better the results.
It’s only natural to play a hunch that Ramirez is going to adapt pretty nicely. Offense always has been his strong suit, and he could take to a regular designated hitter role the same way Ortiz has to making commercials in his retirement. I just wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it.
8. Can Tyler Thornburg be trusted in a set-up role?
We should have had a much clearer answer to this vital question well before now, but the Red Sox and Thornburg crossed wires this winter on the team’s unique shoulder program. He wasn’t ready, which means the Red Sox have no inkling yet if their trade with the Brewers was worth it. As it is, whether Thornburg is deemed ready by Opening Day or not, he is going to have to impress in games to move into the slot the Red Sox have reserved for him. The reveal on this trade has been agonizingly and unnecessarily slow.
9. How good is the bullpen?
It’s not just Kimbrel and Thornburg as unknowns. There’s plenty of mystery about what direction the whole unit is going.
Kelly could turn into a lightsout, reliable reliever — or, who knows, really? Matt Barnes, Heath
Hembree and robbie ross Jr. each bring a good amount of talent to their roles. There’s one spot still left to lock down, but overall, it’s very hard to discern if this squad is appreciably better now. If the rotation has trouble putting up innings — last year the Red Sox bullpen pitched the third-fewest innings in the league — their odds lengthen.
Last year, they were upper-half caliber, but not in the same conversation with the league’s best bullpens. That looks to still be the case.
10. Will Sandy Leon hit?
Which of these OPS’ is not like the other: .681, .654, .711 or 1.173? If you guessed the last, you may have a sharper eye than Leon has as a batter — the first three numbers represent Leon’s career OPS in the majors, the minors and in foreign leagues. The fourth represents his firsthalf OPS for the Red Sox last season, a couple months worth of
Johnny Bench- like production. In the second half, he plummeted to .755, and .539 in September.
Leon has not looked much if any better at the plate this spring. He still brings a good amount of defensive skills, but until he proves otherwise, he’s a liability in the batter’s box.