Bet on Bill on this gamble
Belichick got it right with Jimmy G trade
FOXBORO — The NFL has long held firmly its opposition to gambling. Apparently that message never got to Bill Belichick or Kyle Shanahan.
Both Belichick and Shanahan gambled the shortand long-term futures of their franchises Monday when the Patriots swapped untested backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers for a secondround draft choice.
In different ways, each was making a statement about the future.
In New England’s case it was going back to the future, doubling down on a 40-yearold quarterback some believe may be the greatest ever and all agree is in any conversation about the short list for such designation. Yet that does not mitigate the former because whether Tom Brady dressed as an avocado or a Hershey bar for Halloween he’s still a 40-year-old with an aching left shoulder against whom the sands of time are running out.
With no young backup on the roster, Belichick must now start over in his search for Brady’s replacement, and if you gave him truth serum and asked if he believes this is an ideal long-term building plan he’d tell you no. It is what it is, and what it is for him is a gamble.
“Bill is a calculator,” analyzed former New York Giants coach and noted quarterback whisperer Jim Fassel yesterday. “The thinking is Brady will play three or four more years. We can pick up a younger guy and give him three years behind (Brady). We’ll get some guy and let him learn.”
Fassel realizes as only a former head coach can that there’s a gamble in that, but having time to find someone younger and with at least as much upside as Garoppolo may have mitigated the risk to a degree. At 26, Garoppolo is already no spring chicken yet has started only two NFL games in 31⁄2 years and survived only one before being sent to the medical tent. That’s a small sample size, but that quick injury and his limited exposure to live fire makes this move more of a gamble short term for Shanahan than Belichick because the latter has at least seen Brady’s departed understudy in practices, scrimmages, meeting rooms and exhibition games. Truth be told, Belichick couldn’t really know what he’s got either, but he’d have a better shot at it than Shanahan.
“I’m a little concerned about taking a backup quarterback,” Fassel said when asked if he would have made the move the 49ers did. “He won’t have the same players around him at the 49ers. Is it him (looking good) or is it the team? You need an astute guy (to sort it out). But at the end of the day, if you don’t have a quarterback you’ve got to get one.”
The question is did Shanahan get one; the truth is nobody knows. So what is the trade value of a guy who has completed 63 passes in 31⁄2 years, most of them in garbage time, and couldn’t stay healthy for two full games when finally given his chance last season?
The lunatics say more than Belichick got, but the truth is Belichick played it right. He held onto Garoppolo as insurance for as long as he could, then unloaded him for what should be a high second-round pick. Garoppolo’s value would not have been higher after the season because to control his movement Belichick would have had to slap the franchise tag on him, and that’s a $25 million bet neither he nor anyone else would want to make.
Yet even if he got all he could, the move is still a gamble, although perhaps not a long-term one, because despite Belichick’s public statements about Garoppolo’s upside the truth is if Belichick believed he was the next Brady or Aaron Rodgers in waiting he would not have made this move.
Why not? First, you don’t bet your long-term future on a 40-year-old surviving much longer in a world as violent as the NFL. You can work on landing on your left shoulder all you want and still be slammed down on your right, as Brady was last Sunday. When the wrong day comes, something cracks inside and there goes your three-year plan.
If this happens, Brian Hoyer is not the answer, and spare me the Matt Cassel argument.
So Shanahan has bet his job on Jimmy Garoppolo. He has half a season to decide whether to pay him or not. If the answer is not, he only lost a draft choice and a little time. If the answer is “write the check,” it better not bounce. If it does, he’ll be bounced.
Which brings us to the Patriots. Whether you like the trade or not, whether you’re scratching your head at having no heir apparent for a 40-year-old quarterback, you can at least assume Belichick has time to find one. What you can’t assume is there’s much chance to turn that secondround pick into Brady’s replacement.
In 17 years, Belichick has made 26 second-round picks. Thirteen have been busts: Adrian Klemm, Bethel Johnson, Marquise Hill (who tragically died early), Chad Jackson (Oh, Lord), Terrence Wheatley, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Ras-I Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Aaron Dobson (Oh, Lord, Vol. 2) and Kony Ealy (who was acquired for a second-round pick and didn’t even make it to Opening Day).
One could make a case that the same was true for Eugene Wilson, Shane Vereen and perhaps Jordan Richards and Cyrus Jones, but it’s too early to tell with the latter two and the Patriots at least got some serviceable use from Wilson and Vereen, although not much.
Where you put the trade for Corey Dillon is up to you. He had one great season then reverted to being the same pain in the behind he was in Cincinnati before Belichick booted him. Still, it was a hell of a season. You make the call.
Of those 26, seven qualify as hits, and one, Rob Gronkowski, was a grand slam. That’s a success rate of 26.9 percent, which is subpar for second-round choices. Who were the magnificent seven? Gronk, Deion Branch, Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Patrick Chung, Jamie Collins and the traded second-round pick for Wes Welker. You can debate Collins, who had moments of brilliance but after 31⁄2 years was judged wanting and shipped off to Cleveland.
What of the other six? Wilson, Vereen, Richards, Jones, Dillon and Jimmy G? Bust? Hit? Loud foul? No one can argue any reminded you of Gronk. Add them to the 13 and you have missed 19 out of 26 swings. So what does the end of the “Jimmy G We Hardly Knew Ye Era” mean?
“He’s taking a big gamble getting rid of him, but you can’t rule anything out,” Fassel said. “I’m betting on Belichick.”
You might as well, too. Just don’t bet that secondround choice becomes the next Tom Brady because history says there’s a 73 percent chance it will become the next Eugene Wilson ... or worse. A lot worse.