Confidence shaken, but money still taken
Last week I offered the line “give the points with confidence” for yesterday’s game between the Patriots and Dolphins, thinking it would be a rout from the start.
But that confidence was waning when Matt Moore threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to Kenyan Drake to make the score 28-17 with 11:43 remaining. The Pats were favored by 17 points, so they needed to score again then prevent any garbage-time shenanigans by Miami.
Fortunately for anyone who took my advice, the Dolphins stink. Even though they forced a three-and-out on the next series, they were stopped on fourth down on their own 38, and Dion Lewis then shredded a fatigued defense. He ran four times for 34 yards to set up Tom Brady’s nifty shovel pass to Brandin Cooks for a touchdown. The Dolphins managed only one more first down the rest of the game, and Duron Harmon’s late interception of Moore clinched a 35-17 victory and a nail-biting cover. The Pats improved to 7-4 against the spread this season.
A non-cover would have been extremely disappointing because of how bad the Dolphins are. The Pats made enough mistakes — Brady’s interception and Ted Karras’ shotgun snap for a turnover when the quarterback wasn’t looking that was returned for a touchdown — to keep it interesting to gamblers. The final score easily could have been 52-7.
The Cooks touchdown also made over bettors smile. They were in serious trouble when the
PROPHET MARGIN Chris Letourneau
third quarter produced only seven points, but the teams still managed to climb above the 48-point total. Six of the Patriots’ 11 games have been overs.
Next week, the Pats travel to Buffalo to face the Bills, who came to their senses and put Tyrod Taylor back at quarterback after inexplicably benching him for a guy who threw five interceptions in one half. The move paid off as the Bills beat the reeling Chiefs yesterday in Kansas City. The line for next Sunday’s game opened with the Pats favored by 8 points.
On the surface, this seems like a low number. Brady did not play his best game yesterday, but the offense is scoring a ton of points, and Lewis looks better than he ever has. Even the defense managed to put serious pressure on Moore, sacking him seven times.
I know strange things can happen up there, like lake-effect snow and the Bills mafia throwing adult objects at Brady. But the Pats are at least two touchdowns better than the Bills, and until they slip, they are worthy of our bets every week.
Have confidence that Brady and his friends won’t make those mistakes two weeks in a row.
Give the points again.