Take a big bat to bullpen ‘help’
Ever since he arrived in Boston, Dave Dombrowski has devoted money and prospects to the construction of a bullpen.
The president of baseball operations’ first big Red Sox trade was for closer Craig Kimbrel. Then he traded for Carson Smith a few weeks later. He made smaller trades for Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad, and bigger splashes for Tyler Thornburg and Addison Reed.
But the track record is not good, and this winter might be the time to stop trying.
With a long list of lateinning possibilities already in house, and an equally long list of higher priorities, Dombrowski can forgo his usual attempt to add a bigarmed reliever.
Yesterday, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with Thornburg, who signed a one-year contract at $2.05 million, the same amount
he made during his lost 2017 season.
Why no raise for a 29-year-old with a 2.87 career ERA? Because Thornburg didn’t pitch a single big league inning last season. He instead recovered from surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome.
Smith is also in line for a minimal arbitration raise because he missed all but the final month while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has faced 45 batters in two years with the Sox.
Abad, Ziegler and Reed are all gone. Of all Dombrowski’s big bullpen moves, only Kimbrel has had a lasting impact.
Some of that has to do with bad luck. Some of it’s the inconsistent nature of relief pitchers. All of it has left the Red Sox with bullpen uncertainty not easily solved with a single offseason maneuver.
Given unlimited spending, the Sox could splurge on Wade Davis, but this free agent market seems better suited to address the team’s need for a middle-of-the-order bat. If they are going to spend heavily, spend on corner outfielder J.D. Martinez.
Given no concern for the future, the Red Sox could further gut their farm system for Kelvin Herrera, but the Royals’ flamethrower has just one more year of team control, and he’s coming off a career-worst season. Better to let the kids develop.
Given a chance to think outside the box, it would be better to lock right fielder Mookie Betts into a longterm deal than to roll the dice on another relief arm who brings no more certainty than the many options Dombrowski already has gathered.
Here’s the Red Sox bullpen at the moment: Kimbrel is the closer, Robby Scott is the most-proven lefty specialist and some collection of Thornburg, Smith, Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are the top options for the eighth inning.
That’s six relief spots already, without mentioning Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, Austin Maddox and Brian Johnson.
Hard to say whether that’s a good, acceptable or terrible bullpen.
If Smith and Thornburg are healthy and pitch like the Red Sox originally envisioned, they’ll give the team two legitimate set-up men. If Workman and Maddox continue to impress, they’ll provide depth. If Kelly and Barnes pitch like they did at the best of times last season, they’ll give new manager Alex Cora plenty of options.
If none of those things happens, it will be a complete wreck without many leads for Kimbrel to protect.
But alternatives are tricky considering the Red Sox already have committed so many of their resources and still have more pressing needs in the lineup. They at least have candidates for the eighth inning. The designated hitter at the moment is who? Bryce Brentz?
If the bullpen falls apart, Dombrowski’s most recent deadline deal for Reed showed it’s always possible to find a relief upgrade midseason. In the meantime, maybe a more proven lefty reliever like Tony Watson to improve matchup possibilities and add a mix-andmatch element to the later innings. Or maybe a smaller move for a buy-low reliever who won’t restrict the ability to spend elsewhere.
For more than two years now, Dombrowski has tried and tried to put the pieces in place for a deep and dominant bullpen. The fact those attempts have failed as often as they have succeeded has left the team without much late-inning dependability, but also without much ability to put more resources toward the effort.
If the budget is massive, then by all means, add a hitter and a reliever. But even with late-inning uncertainty, another bullpen blockbuster seems unnecessary.
This winter, it makes more sense to spend elsewhere and hope some of those previous bullpen maneuvers pay dividends at last.