Top offense vs. top defense a tough call

The Jaguars’ unexpected win in Pittsburgh thwarted a juicy AFC title game rematch between the Pats and Steelers, but it still left a considerable obstacle between Tom Brady and a potential eighth Super Bowl appearance: since Jacksonville has one of the league’s best defenses.

In fact, during the regular season the Patriots offense and the Jaguars defense each led the NFL in Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric, and both units were also the

topranked teams in terms of passing DVOA.

With traditional statistics, top defenses have mostly prevailed against top offenses in the postseason, which doesn’t bode well for the Patriots.

For instance, the topranked scoring defense has won five out of six Super Bowl matchups against the top-ranked offense, with last year’s Patriots team (defense) defeating the Falcons (offense) in Super Bowl LI serving as the most recent example.

However, with DVOA, elite offenses have a much better history against elite defenses.

Overall, the top-ranked offense and defense in DVOA have played each other 20 times in the regular season or playoffs since 1986, and the offense is 14-6 in those games.

The success does even out when the two top units meet in the playoffs, however, as the sides are an even 2-2 in those games, with the 2013 and 2014 Seahawks accounting for both wins for the defense in recent seasons.

For a larger sample size in the playoffs, you can expand the stat to include matchups featuring units in the top five of the metric for that season.

In that scenario, the winloss record is nearly split down the middle at 45-44 in favor of the defense, with the Jaguars and Vikings nudging the defense ahead this past weekend.

Now there’s reason to believe that this Jaguars defense may not be as good as the statistics suggest.

The scoreboard over the last month showed the Jaguars aren’t invincible as they allowed 42 points to the Steelers on Sunday and 44 to the 49ers in Week 16.

Their weighted-DVOA ranking, which is adjusted so games earlier in the season become gradually less important, began to reflect that as well as they dropped to fourth by the end of the regular season.

Having said that, the Patriots offense had similar struggles late in the season as Tom Brady’s numbers dipped and injuries began to take their toll.

And nobody in New England said the Patriots offense is overrated because of a few subpar performances.

Plus, Steelers stars Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell deserve credit for combining on three of the most spectacular touchdowns of the season on Sunday.

Looking at the entire season, there’s reason to believe that this Jaguars pass defense, in particular, may be one of the best of the last 30 years.

In fact, this year’s Jaguars team ranks sixth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt value since 1982, which is a formula that combines passing yards and touchdowns allowed with sacks and interceptions by the defense to produce an overall value.

Over that span, five of the top 10 teams in ANY/A value went on to win the Super Bowl, including the 2013 Seahawks (third), the 2008 Steelers (second), the 2003 Patriots (10th), the 2002 Buccaneers (first), and the 1985 Bears (eighth).

Luckily for the Patriots, Tom Brady and the offense only needs to outscore Blake Bortles and the Jags’ offensive unit to advance to the franchise’s 10th Super Bowl.

But make no mistake about it, the matchup between Brady and the Jags defense is the latest example of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.