FLU HIGHER AND HIGHER
Increase in state cases starts to taper, but season far from over
The fierce spike in flu reports over the past month slowed its climb last week, according to Massachusetts data, yet doctors and public health officials warn it’s far from proof the deadly epidemic is ending.
The slice of people walking into Massachusetts doctors’ offices with flu symptoms continued its climb to 5.6 percent, according to new data from the state Department of Public Health. Massachusetts also this week saw its first pediatric flu death from this season’s epidemic, a 6-year-old girl from Haverhill.
At Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, the flu looks to be as strong as ever, said Dr. Graham Snyder, head of the hospital’s infectious disease division.
“We may still have some time before it peaks in Massachusetts,” Snyder said. “Our numbers here at the BI are still going up. We are doing much higher than a typical season. As far as the number of positive tests and the number of hospitalized patients and the volume in the emergency department here, it remains a very intensely active season.”
He said the hospital, like others in the area, have seen spot shortages of face masks, flu testing supplies and the drug Tamiflu used to treat people with the flu.
DPH’s head of epidemiology and immunization, Dr. Larry Madoff, said while the state numbers look to be “plateauing,” they are still much higher than previous years.
“Last season, it never got above 2.5 percent, so that’s a lot of flu cases,” Madoff said. Lab-confirmed flu cases and hospitalizations are rising as they have all season, he said, but those data sets usually lag behind the symptom reports.
He’s hoping the numbers flatten, then start their decline, but warned there’s no telling if that’ll happen.
“It’s plateauing,” Madoff said. “We may have reached the peak, but we won’t know that until it’s over.”
Contrary to the rising state numbers, reports nationally and in Boston show early signs the flu is starting to wane.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said flu symptom reports dipped last week to 7.5 percent. In Boston, the portion of patients walking into emergency rooms shrank to 5.13 percent last week, according to the city’s public health commission.
Boston Public Health Commission’s interim medical director Dr. Jenifer Jaeger said the lower city numbers could be due to the city’s concentration of hospitals and health centers.
“It makes sense the reason why we have lower numbers here is we are very aggressive in prevention and preparedness systems,” Jaeger said, adding that the city has seen lower rates in at least five years for flu deaths and hospitalizations. The lower flu rates in the city are encouraging and could mean the worst of the epidemic is past, she said.
“The weather is getting warmer, kids are on school vacation,” Jaeger said. “I think we’re going to start to see a consistent decrease.”