Stage set for Justify
Looks for Crowning victory
The mystique of the Triple Crown took a serious hit in 2015 when American Pharoah completed a sweep of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to distinguish himself as the 12th horse to capture all three spring classics for 3-year-olds, becoming the first to achieve the feat since Affirmed in 1978.
Although 37 years of futility had previously made the Triple Crown seem utterly unattainable for the modern-day thoroughbred, American Pharoah’s success has made a Triple Crown seem well within the grasp of Justify in tomorrow’s 150th running of the Belmont Stakes.
The undefeated Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner certainly seems to have a lot going for him heading into the 11⁄2-mile classic at Belmont Park. The Kentuckybred son of Scat Daddy also seems to have some roadblocks as he looked to finish off his journey along the Triple Crown trail in style.
Justify’s trainer Bob Baffert may well be his biggest asset in his quest for glory tomorrow. The 65-year-old Hall of Famer, after all, has been there and done that, having saddled American Pharoah for his Triple Crown sweep. Should Baffert end up in the Belmont winner’s circle, he’ll be just the second trainer to have saddled two Triple Crown winners — joining the legendary “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons, who achieved the feat with Gallant Fox (1930) and Omaha (1935).
With another win in the Belmont, Justify would give Baffert a record 15th winner in Triple Crown races. He is currently tied for the record of 14 wins with D. Wayne Lukas, who will have the opportunity to notch his 15th series win, should Preakness runner-up Bravazo upset Justify.
While Baffert’s success with American Pharoah can be viewed as a positive in Justify’s bid for greatness, it should be noted that his success rate is just 25 percent with horses with a Triple Crown bid in the Belmont. As invincible as he may seem, Baffert had three previous chances to pull it off and came up empty with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002).
But when you take into account the amazing success that Baffert and jockey Mike Smith have enjoyed since 2016, his connections must be viewed as a big plus to Justify’s chances. Heading into the Preakness, Baffert and Smith teamed for 44 victories from 106 starts, including 27 victories from 66 starts in graded stakes, during the past 21 ⁄2 years. Smith consistently earns his “Money Mike” nickname when the money is down for Baffert and other trainers, as well.
Justify has been unbeatable in his five-race career that only began Feb. 18, so he does bring an aura of invincibility into Belmont. However, only one horse in history has emerged from the Triple Crown undefeated — Seattle Slew, who ran his career record to 9-for-9 as the 2-5 favorite in 1977. Only three others had the opportunity to maintain a perfect record through the Belmont — Majestic Prince (1969) finished second at 6-5; Smarty Jones, who was 8-for-8 heading into the 2004 Belmont, finished second at 1-5; and Big Brown, who was 5-for-5, was pulled up and didn’t finish the 2008 Belmont at 1-5 odds.
While Justify is a worthy 4-5 morning-line favorite, he will be facing a field of wellconnected connections. Four rival trainers have also saddled a combined nine Belmont Stakes winners. Lukas has tasted success with four Belmont starters; Todd Pletcher, who is slated to saddle Vino Rosso and Noble Indy tomorrow, has visited the winner’s circle with three Belmont winners; while Bill Mott, who will be represented by Hofburg, and Steve Asmussen, who is scheduled to saddle Preakness third-place finisher Tenfold, have each won a Belmont. Lukas, Mott and Asmussen are Hall of Famers, while Pletcher will be a first-ballot inductee when he is eligible.
Historical data, individual achievement, speed figures and, of course, Daily Racing Form past performances all are significant factors in handicapping the Belmont Stakes, but none of those will determine if Justify will achieve immortality tomorrow — that determination will be made by the Racing Gods, who have always had the final say,
Justify may well be made of the same stuff as American Pharoah, but only the Racing Gods will know if he is until the undefeated colt takes to the Belmont Park racetrack tomorrow.