Third-down nightmares
Pats offense just can’t convert
FOXBORO — Flipping through the league’s statistics, the Patriots have no one from the offense sitting in the top 10 in third-down conversions.
No receivers, no running backs, no tight ends, not a soul.
It wasn’t so long ago, they owned that statistic. Last season, Danny Amendola was a conversion machine on third down. The former Patriot was at the head of the class in that category.
Then there’s the all-time title holder Julian Edelman. When healthy, or not serving a suspension, he’s the ultimate chain-mover. He’s Mr. Third Down. If Tom Brady needs to make a play, or extend a drive, Edelman is the guy.
After the first three games of this 1-2 season, without Amendola, who will be in town with the unbeaten Dolphins on Sunday, and Edelman, who will be serving the final game of his suspension, Brady looks lost on third down.
Against Detroit, the Patriots converted just two third-down opportunities in nine chances. They couldn’t sustain drives. It was the same way against Jacksonville in the previous week’s loss, converting on two of their six chances.
Without a reliable receiver, or at least one who can get open during key downs, that leaves opposing defenses to focus on Rob Gronkowski, as both the Jaguars and the Lions had the majority of their coverage zero-in on the tight end. Opposing coordinators don’t have to do nearly as much to neutralize, or attempt to neutralize, the all-world tight end.
Let’s face it, with the exception of running back James White, the offense doesn’t have any playmakers or explosive players to give Gronk a hand. Back Rex Burkhead might be someone in that category, but he can’t stay healthy.
Sony Michel had that kind of talent in college, but hasn’t come anywhere near showing it thus far in the two games he’s played.
Cordarrelle Patterson has tons of athleticism, but now it’s become pretty obvious why none of his previous teams used him more in the offense, why he was essentially a force on special teams. There’s a disconnect between Patterson and the playbook, and where he’s supposed to be and what he’s supposed to do. The point?
This is where they miss Edelman, and/or Amendola the most. They’re playmakers. They’re rescue players. When Brady’s in trouble, or a drive needs to be rescued, these are the players who keep drives alive. This is why the loss of Amendola, who signed a two-year contract for $12 million with Miami in the offseason, has been one of the most significant free-agent losses for the Patriots.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise Amendola is leading the Dolphins in receptions with 11. Last season, without Edelman, Amendola filled the void. He was always able to get open. Seeing him Sunday in Foxboro with the Dolphins will be another reminder of what Brady still could have, and how much his reliability and dependability isn’t easily replaced.
The losses of back Dion Lewis and receiver Brandin Cooks have also been felt. They were dynamic threats.
The combination of all of the above gave Brady options, and gave Gronk a little more room to roam.
Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Patterson just aren’t getting open enough, particularly at the key moments.
And, Gronkowski’s brother Chris wasn’t shy about pointing that out yesterday on WEEI on the Kirk and Callahan Show.
“When you’re giving up two of your best defenders — safeties or a corner and a safety — to cover a tight end, guys on the outside should be able to win,” Chris Gronkowski said. “It’s just super frustrating to watch. They’ve got to figure something out.”
Maybe that something will be newly acquired Josh Gordon, if and when it’s deemed he’s physically ready given a hamstring problem and also knows enough of the playbook. With his talent, Gordon certainly fits the description of being an explosive player. Given his off-field issues, it’s just so hard to know if the Pats can depend on him long-term.
Edelman will also return Week 5 from his PED suspension, but it’s anyone’s guess how close to the Edelman of old he’ll be coming back from an ACL injury. At this point, if he can get open, they’ll take it.
Chris Gronkowski seemed to think Edelman would help provide a cure for the offense, and a cure for getting his brother open.
“I think when Edelman comes back, everything’s going to look different,” he said. “He’s a man-beater.”
There’s no question Edelman provides a mental toughness and competitiveness that’s been sorely missing from the offense. Amendola had that same brand of toughness.
That’s why they were so successful on third down. That’s why they were so good in the clutch. That’s why Brady had so much faith and trust in them.
With that ability to convert on third down, sustain drives, have a more effective Gronk, the offense could score enough points to carry the defense.
Right now, three games in, it’s just not happening.