BIG WIN’S A MUST FOR LIZ TO CHALLENGE PREZ
GOP expert: ‘She needs 60 percent or more’
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is likely to win re-election today, but she needs to win big in order to be in a good place for 2020, political experts say.
“To impress, she needs 60 percent or more,” said Todd Domke, a longtime GOP political consultant who left the party in opposition to President Trump. “Her margin does matter to activists around the country who will be looking at a long list of potential candidates.”
Warren, an incumbent Democrat with an eye on a 2020 White House run, is heavily favored to win the Bay State, and pollsters generally have her pulling about 60 percent of the vote, to about 25 percent for GOP challenger Geoff Diehl and a couple of points for independent candidate Shiva Ayyadurai. But she also needs to outperform popular Gov. Charlie Baker, who is also expected to win by a large margin.
Warren is a leader of the Democratic party’s left wing and is both a frequent critic of and target for Trump, who she would be running
against if she were to win a Democratic primary in 2020. and it’s in the presumably crowded upcoming primary field where a weak showing would hurt her, said D.C.-based GOP consultant Ryan Williams.
“If Baker outperforms her, people will notice that,” said Williams, referring to popular moderate GOP Gov. Charlie Baker. “She doesn’t gain anything if she wins by a large margin. She’s the most liberal senator from the most liberal state — Elizabeth Warren is winning in Massachusetts and the sky is blue.”
In the last full day of the campaign yesterday, Diehl shook hands and chatted with voters at McKay's Breakfast and Lunch, a popular Quincy diner. The Whitman state representative continued to talk about the strong economy and slam his opponent as out of touch.
“My focus is on Massachusetts, and her focus is on running for the White House,” Diehl said.
Warren rallied with a slate of Democrats in Lynn, staying on her normal messaging by talking about health care and infrastructure.
“The fundamental question is who government works for,” Warren said. “The Republicans think it should work for the rich and the powerful.”
Democratic consultant Scott Ferson compared the race to when his former boss U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy won a high-profile race against Mitt Romney in Romney’s first political foray in 1994. Kennedy, a longtime popular senator, faced a variety of scandals but still beat Romney, 58-41.
“If he (Diehl) underperforms Romney, I think it’s legit to say that’s the type of thing Democrats like — she took a weak candidate and she beat the crap out of him,” Ferson said, noting that a more narrow race would result in a bad news cycle for Warren. “Democrats want a fighter to take on Trump.”
But Republican consultant Brad Marston said he expects a win to be a win for Warren — because, he believes, GOP candidates will beat the nationwide predictions, throwing Dems into distress.
“The narrative is going to be a lot of people underperformed and she still won,” Marston said of the Democrats.