Chasing the No. 1 seed
Which top AFC teams are primed for good playoff positioning?
There’s a half-dozen games left for most of the AFC’s top teams currently jockeying for playoff seeding and one of the coveted top two seeds. It really tightened up at the top with the Chiefs losing Monday night to the Rams in that wild shootout. Andy Reid’s team was in the driver’s seat for the top seed, but don’t have as much of a cushion. If the Chiefs lose one more game, and the Patriots win out, for instance, Bill Belichick’s team would gain the top seed and home field throughout the playoffs. That’s how the dominoes would fall. Given the remaining schedules, plenty of scenarios still could play out. Let’s look at the top teams, check what’s left on the schedule, and assess the chances for the primary contenders.
1. Chiefs
Record: 9-2 Conference: 7-1 Last game: 54-51 loss to Rams Toughest remaining games: Ravens, Chargers, at Seahawks Forecast: Maybe the race got tighter for the top seed, but the Chiefs don’t seem bothered by the venue they’re in, or the opponent they’re playing. They still put up a ton of points. They left Foxboro a three-point loser to the Pats in Week 6, but seemed buoyed by the experience. They also went toeto-toe with the Rams in their highly anticipated showdown Monday night and left the same way. The battle certainly lived up to the hype, and then some, with the Chiefs ultimately losing 54-51. Looking ahead, the Chiefs have a couple games down the stretch where they might break a sweat, but still have to be considered the favorite to keep the top seed and not leave Arrowhead during the playoffs. Their most difficult challenge will be knocking off the Seahawks in Seattle. Pete Carroll’s team figures to still be fighting for its playoff life and a wild card spot. The Seahawks have a defense that gets to the quarterback (10th in sacks) and causes turnovers. That was Patrick Mahomes’ undoing against the Rams. But even if the Chiefs lose the top spot, their young quarterback and league MVP candidate won’t fear coming to Foxboro or heading wherever for the AFC Championship game.
2. Steelers
Record: 7-2-1 Conference: 4-2-1 Last game: 20-16 win over the Jaguars Toughest remaining games: at Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, at Saints Forecast: One week they look invincible against the Panthers. The next, it’s a lifeand-death struggle against the Jaguars before pulling it out in the end. But six straight wins doesn’t have to look pretty every week. There’s no question they’re much better than they were when the season started. After jumping out of the gate 1-2-1, they heated up and have played pretty well during the run. But they’re still prone to making mistakes and their remaining schedule is pretty tough. That win over the Jags had consequences in the playoff picture, as it gave them a halfgame lead over the Pats for the No. 2 seed for the time being. Much like last season, their Week 15 showdown with Tom Brady & Co. in Pittsburgh could determine who gets a bye and a home game in the playoffs with the second seed, or even who might have to play on wild card weekend. There are plenty of games the Men of Steel could lose down the stretch. Their schedule isn’t easy particularly with road games in Denver and New Orleans. The Pats have had their way with them, and as always, the Steelers will be out for revenge. Last year’s regular-season loss with the Patriots coming from behind late will be the freshest hurt on their mind. “I wouldn’t count Pittsburgh out, that’s a dangerous team,” NBC commentator Rodney Harrison said when reached last week. “I wouldn’t want to play them. If I had to play a team, I wouldn’t want to play the Steelers.”
3. Patriots
Record: 7-3 Conference: 5-2 Last game: 34-10 loss to the Titans Toughest remaining games: Vikings, at Steelers, at Dolphins Forecast: Getting croaked by the Titans was rather unsettling given when it happened on the schedule. The Patriots are usually ramping up toward playoff form at this point in the season. They now have six games to get to that desired level. The good news? Four of the six games are against terrible AFC East teams. The bad? Three of the next four are on the road, where the Pats have been pretty terrible themselves. The road games with the Steelers and Dolphins (4-1 at home), in particular, won’t be easy. Nor will the home date with the Vikings. Still, with Rob Gronkowski returning today, and sounding energized and ready to go, and Rex Burkhead eligible to follow suit next week, that should help get them over the hump. If the Patriots get their collective acts together, and get on the expected roll, they still have a shot at grabbing the top seed. “I think the first thing when it comes to the playoffs and seeding will be who’s healthy,” said former Patriot Harrison. “With the bye week, that should be huge for the Patriots. It’ll recharge them, and I do think they’ll make a run.” Harrison’s remarks were made before Tom Brady turned up Wednesday on the injury report with a knee problem. He practiced that day on a limited basis, but missed Friday’s practice with an illness. He originally hurt the knee making a catch in the Titans game. It’s not considered serious, according to a source, and the problem is not expected to keep him out of today’s game with the Jets. Still, it’s something to monitor.
4. Texans
Record: 7-3 Conference: 5-2 Last game: 23-21 win over the Redskins Toughest remaining games: Titans, Colts, at Eagles. Forecast: They’ve won seven straight after an 0-3 start, and no one is really talking about them as a serious contender just yet. The Patriots beat them in the season opener, but they’ve come a long way from that loss mostly because of quarterback Deshaun Watson feeling more comfortable operating on his surgically repaired knee, the defense playing well, and their schedule not being too taxing. It stays that way over the final six games. They have four home games, while their two on the road (Jets, Eagles) aren’t too scary at this point. The Titans and Colts will be their toughest tests. The Colts gifted them with one of their wins earlier on a curious decision by head coach Frank Reich to go on fourth down in overtime and they’re also one of the hottest teams right now with Andrew Luck playing extremely well. The Titans have been running hot and cold, so it’s not outlandish to think the Texans could sneak into one of the top spots. The Patriots, however, would win the head-to-head tiebreaker if they finished tied with the same record.
5. Chargers
Record: 7-3 Conference: 5-2 Last game: 23-22 loss to the Broncos Toughest remaining games: at Steelers, at Chiefs, Ravens, at Broncos Forecast: They were starting to get more and more non-believers on their bandwagon as the wins piled up. But last week’s loss to Denver, with their inability to close out the game, and the same old mistakes being made by Phillip Rivers & Co., gave everyone pause. The Bolts have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and are usually a tough team to play against. It’s just hard to get behind them completely. Defensive end Joey Bosa returned last week on a limited basis, and as his workload increases, their defense will get even more of a boost. They’re a top ten passing offense, a top 12 rushing offense, and top ten defense in points per game. Based on their schedule, and their history, however, it’s hard picturing them having a realistic shot at the top seed, especially having to go to Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Denver along the way. Twitter: @kguregian