Sox are OK without Kimbrel
This could be another one of those “waiting for Player X to sign” spring trainings, and the Red Sox aren’t immune to playing this game for the second straight year. While Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will dominate the baseball headlines until they sign, Craig Kimbrel is in a similar boat as a 30-year-old on a Hall of Fame track who just entered free agency for the first time. There are flaws and downtrending numbers to be concerned about, but he remains one of the best relievers in baseball, having held hitters to the lowest contact rate (62.7 percent) in the game in 2018. It’s hard to see Kimbrel signing for anything close to what most would consider a bargain. Even if that takes him into February without a contract. The safe bet is to assume the Red Sox aren’t going to be involved. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said multiple times this offseason that the Sox won’t swallow a large expenditure to add a closer. And with the club already pushing a $238 million payroll for luxury tax purposes (tax kicks in at $206 million this year), they have less than $8 million to work with if they want to avoid paying the highest penalty and losing 10 spots on their draft pick for a second straight year. Money is finally an issue for this team. It was always going to catch up to them. So while most of the best relievers have been plucked off the free agent market, only Kimbrel and Adam Ottavino remain among the elites. Cody Allen (4.70 ERA in 2018) and Brad Brach (3.59 ERA) are there, too. Either Allen or Brach seems most likely to end up in a Red Sox uniform. And aside from another minor league signing or perhaps a decent reliever that could be picked up in exchange for one of the Sox’ extra catchers, it seems unlikely that any other additions will be made to a bullpen that saw Joe Kelly and Kimbrel hit the free agent market. What the Red Sox have now could be very similar to what they’ll have entering the season. That means there’s a legitimate chance that either Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier will enter the year as the closer, unless manager Alex Cora wants to take the stomach-turning “closer by committee” approach. Even without another bigname addition, the Sox can point to their Nathan Eovaldi signing as the key move of the offseason. Remember, Dombrowski chose to acquire Eovaldi instead of Zach Britton at the trade deadline last year because he thought Eovaldi gave the Sox more flexibility. It seems like he made the same choice again this winter, and it’s probably the right one (again). With Eovaldi, the Sox get the potential of a top-of-the-rotation starter. Worst-case, he struggles or encounters injury issues that force him to the bullpen where he could become a dominant weapon there. But most likely he’ll be in the rotation with Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. All of a sudden the Sox bullpen is one man deeper, with knuckleballer Steven Wright adding to the mix. If his knee isn’t an issue, Wright has proven to be as consistent as any knuckler in the last decade. No, he’s not a traditional set-up guy. But he could do voluminous work as a multi-inning weapon on days Rodriguez or Eovaldi can’t get out of the fifth inning. And the Sox will undoubtedly need a sixth starter at some point during the season. Could Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez find a way to generate more outs in a redefined one-inning role? Johnson has the dominant curveball that can be filthy when he’s spotting his high 80s fastball to keep people off balance. Perhaps the fastball will play up if Johnson is no longer asked to provide length and simply lets it rip over 10-20 pitches. It’s all a guessing game, but if Wright, Velazquez and Johnson get you to the sixth or seventh, the Sox aren’t in the worst shape. Barnes has been plagued by walk issues his entire career, but showed tremendous growth in 2018, easily his best season, and is a worthy set-up man on any team. Brasier clearly has the talent and guile to handle the closer role. Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree are solid options in the middle innings. The Sox love Colten Brewer, who they acquired from the Padres, and hope he can be the 2019 version of Brasier. Tyler Thornburg is still under contract, if his thoracic outlet issues will ever subdue. Last year’s third-rounder, Durbin Feltman, projects as a talented reliever who isn’t far from the majors. And though lefty Darwinzon Hernandez will begin the year as a starter in the minors, there seems to be a strong belief that he’s slated for relief work in the majors when he matures. This isn’t to say that the Red Sox bullpen has no flaws, or that they don’t need Kimbrel or Ottavino. But there are numbers here. There is upside. And if the Sox want to avoid spending big on another reliever, the wise move with so many players up for free agency in the next two seasons, the bullpen should hold up. If not, there’s always the midseason acquisition.