Outlook not quite so dire
Gronk-less offense has big potential
Training camp still is two months away. That’s ahead of the 2019 NFL season, which doesn’t start for another four months.
Already, Tom Brady and the Patriots offense isn’t getting much love or respect.
Losing Rob Gronkowski to retirement along with a receiving corps that has a lot of question marks has gutted expectations for the group to be among the league’s better offenses this coming season. At least, there are muted expectations to this point.
In one instance, NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling didn’t have the Patriots projected in his top 10 best offenses. The Saints, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Rams, Chiefs, Browns, Chargers, Steelers and Packers all were rated ahead, in that order. Wesseling had the Patriots in a group “knocking on the door” after that.
Looking at the personnel currently on the roster, on face value alone, maybe the Patriots aren’t a top five offense right now. Outside the top 10 certainly is debatable. But knowing Brady, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, it’s not outlandish to think the Patriots will rise up and still be among the best, especially when the money’s on the line.
Going back a decade, the lowest the Patriots offense ever has registered was sixth best in terms of points per game (26.7), and that was in 2009. Last year, they were fourth (27.3).
Obviously, since 2010, the Patriots offense has featured Gronk, a player who has caught the most touchdown passes in team history. The all-world tight end didn’t play full seasons in 2016, 2013, and 2012 because of injury, and while the group at times sputtered during his absence, the offense ultimately got by and still generated points.
In 2016, Brady and Co. won a Super Bowl without him, making the greatest comeback in championship history.
Will this offense be potent enough?
They were a top-five offense last year with a diminished Gronk. Looking at what’s been assembled, this offense has the potential to be as good, if not better.
ESPN analyst Damien Woody, reached Wednesday, was a bit puzzled by the Patriots being kept out of anyone’s top offense list, even in May.
“This is baffling to me. It’s not like they haven’t played without Gronk before,” Woody said. “That’s what people don’t understand. They’ve done it before. They won a Super Bowl without him.”
Woody didn’t diminish the loss of Gronkowski, but pointed to the Patriots still having Brady, still having Dante Scarnecchia running the offensive line, while adding some pieces to the equation.
“The O-line is still going to be one of the best in the business. They’ve added to their stable of running backs. They drafted a firstround wide receiver,” said Woody, referring to Alabama running back Damien Harris, and Arizona State wideout N’Keal Harry. “Do they have Gronk? No. But he was slowing down last year. And the Patriots are the best team at adapting to what they have personnel-wise. I don’t know why people think there’s going to be this precipitous drop when it comes to the Patriots.
“The Patriots are a welloiled machine,” he added. “The only way that kind of drop (out of the top ten) happens, is if Tom Brady gets hurt. That’s the only way that drop happens.”
During his recent media availability, McDaniels wouldn’t put any labels on what his offense might look like or prove to be, given the personnel. That’s all to be determined.
McDaniels understands Gronkowski can’t be replaced given what he brought to the table. But that doesn’t mean the offense can’t be just as effective in other ways.
“Gronk was a great player. He did a lot for us. Our job is to figure out how to move the ball, and score as many points without him,” McDaniels said. “That might look different. Maybe some will be the same, I don’t know.
“Look, nobody’s going to replace Rob. It doesn’t matter what we’re doing, or who we bring in. That person is not just going to drop into the offense, and say, ‘I got his role covered.’ It’s not going to happen. What you do is take the best group you can put together, figure out what their strengths are, and try to play to them.”
Among that group, one of the common denominators is size. The Pats have assembled a different look based on the stature of their new additions alone. First-round draft pick Harry is 6-foot-3. Undrafted wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is 6-foot-2.
Then there’s free agent pickups Demaryius Thomas, Maurice Harris and Dontrelle Inman, who all are 6-foot-3.
Harry, Meyers, Harris and Inman all have the versatility to play inside, and be tall, physical slots if that’s where McDaniels chooses to line them up in certain situations. That will present favorable matchups.
As for the tight ends, the Pats added 6-foot-6 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 6-foot-6, 245-pound Matt Lacosse and 6-foot-3 Benjamin Watson.
How will the added size help Brady? He got a whiff of what a big, physical receiver would do for him last year with Josh Gordon aboard for 11 games.
Gordon, who could return from his indefinite suspension, planted the seed on where the offense could go, and how it might expand beyond the running game.
“Big receivers come with a big catch radius. You don’t have to be as accurate with big receivers. If you can throw it in their vicinity, 9 times out of 10, they’re going to come down with the catch. That’s what big receivers do for you,” Woody said. “So whether it’s Josh Gordon, or N’Keal Harry, those are big guys who can high point the football. That’s going to help Tom Brady. And it’s going to help in the red zone. Throw it up to your big guy. I’ll take my chances on the big receiver over the smaller DB.”
Already, the Pats defensive backs have noticed the difference in practice with the receiving corps.
“Like you said, they’re not just tall, but they’re big, strong. Going against receivers like that, it makes it a lot tougher on you. With their catch radius, they’re able to use their body to get open a little bit more,” safety Duron Harmon said. “You’ve got to be more physical with them, but you can’t get into too (much) of a physical match, because at the end of the day they might end up overpowering you. You might have to go back and forth with how you’re playing them. Hopefully they bring some of that mismatch to our offense and do a good job scoring some points.”
Brady on his own
Like last year, Brady has been working out on his own rather than at the team’s voluntary offseason workouts. And, just like last year, Brady, will once again miss passing camp, which starts tomorrow. He’s been throwing to receivers off site, including Julian Edelman, but won’t officially work with the team collectively until mandatory minicamp June 4-6.
That will be the first time we see Brady connecting with rookie first-round pick Harry and the rest of his tower-like cast.
“To me, they put their roster together, and it’s the classic morphing to whatever they need to be,” NFL Network analyst Brian Billick said. “It’ll be interesting to see what (Brady) actually thinks of this group.”
New York clown show
They’re debating in New York which football team is the bigger clown show. Right now, it’s the Jets.
Canning GM Mike Maccagnan on Wednesday was a head-scratcher to say the least and not because he didn’t deserve to go. It was the move to make — five months ago. The timing was ludicrous. Why let the guy make all the moves for the 2019 season, spend a ton of money in free agency with the ton of space the Jets had, if you were going to fire him all along?
“It doesn’t make any sense,” said Woody, a former Jet. “When it was apparent Todd Bowles was going to get fired, I thought they should clean house, bring on a new regime, start clean then. But then you let (Maccagnan) spend the money, go through the draft, and you can him? This came out of left field, but hey, they always make things interesting.”
So the new GM inherits the roster Maccagnan put together. That’s crazy. And we’ll see if he can get along with head coach Adam Gase, who now seems to have all the clout. He didn’t like Maccagnan spending a ton of money on Le’Veon Bell. So it appears Gase undercut the GM.
The bottom line? It’s the same it’s been the past two decades.
“This team is a lot better now than it was last year. But at the end of the day, all that matters, have you closed the gap with the Patriots?” Woody said. “That’s what everything is going to be judged on. Have you closed that gap? We’ll see.”