Number of observations from Red Sox’ first half
Devers a true Star, but issues abound
The Red Sox’ dreaded first half comes to an end today, and there are quite a few ways to look at what happened in the first 3½ months of the season.
While it’s not totally safe to start booking October vacations, drawing a loose outline and reserving some free-cancellation hotel rooms might be in order.
The Red Sox entered Friday with a .529 winning percentage, leaving them with a prayer’s chance and nothing more to win the uber-competitive American League East.
The Yankees are just too good (they’re 6-1 against their rivals since the Sox ended their season a year ago), and they’re only getting better as big names come off the injured list and the depth of the farm system can be exploited for trade deadline help.
Baseball-reference.com has the Red Sox with a 1.8 percent chance to win the division.
Not happening.
But they do have a 22 percent chance of making the postseason in a wild card spot. And once you’re in, anything goes.
Here’s one last statistic on their winning percentage before we share some key observations and numbers from the first half: In the last 10 years, there have been 204 teams to have a winning percentage under .530 at the All-Star break. Only 14 of them (7 percent) have made the playoffs.
And now, five thoughts on as a strange first half for the local nine comes to an end:
1. As usual, All-Star nods are about as meaningful as beating a toddler in a pingpong match.
The only point made by this year’s Red Sox players who were originally voted in? J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts were really good — in 2018. Martinez is having another solid season in 2019, though he admitted it’s not up to his standard and it’s been a grind all year. Betts always is good, but hasn’t been great since his last six games of the regular season in 2018.
If this is supposed to be a show of the game’s best players this year, there’s little doubt Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers should’ve been representing the Red Sox. Bogaerts eventually got in when players started dropping out, but it’s a shame Devers won’t be in Cleveland.
2. A big bat for the Derby … next year.
The Home Run Derby is tomorrow and there’s no Red Sox player worthy of being there this year, but keep an eye on Michael Chavis for next year.
Chavis is the perfect player for this event, with an allor-nothing swing and a personality he’s not afraid to let people see. When he goes deep, he goes really deep, with some of the longest homers of the season for the Red Sox. And since you don’t have to be an All-Star to participate in the Derby, maybe we’ll see him swatting dingers in Dodger Stadium next July.
3. Are the Red Sox gearing up to acquire a starting pitcher?
Here’s why this seems likely: Nathan Eovaldi and Darwinzon Hernandez both have been moved to the bullpen. And, unprompted, Dave Dombrowski told reporters in Toronto this week that former first-rounder Tanner Houck (3.65 ERA in Double-A) might also make the move to the ’pen.
There goes the depth to the starting rotation, one that’s barely operating every four or five days when the Sox send out an “opener,” a strategy that only works when teams have deep bullpens full of big arms. This team doesn’t. And it’s remarkable the Red Sox have survived these disastrous bullpen games, which, by the way, are extremely unenjoyable to watch, create too many pitching changes and remove any sense of rhythm.
Price and Sale, pray for hail.
But with big names such as Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler and Marcus Stroman (David Price’s baseball brother) likely to be available by trade, the Red Sox could have a chance not only to acquire a gamechanger at the deadline, but could do so in a way that blocks the Yankees from strengthening their biggest weakness.
Brian Cashman is known for making shrewd moves like this, finding ways to make his team better while simultaneously taking options away from the Red Sox. He did it this winter, acquiring Adam Ottavino and D.J. LeMahieu on bargain deals at two positions where the Red Sox could have used some help.
Perhaps Dombrowski will repay the favor with a bigtime acquisition that gives the Red Sox some muchneeded life.
Otherwise, if the Sox keep sending out “openers,” it’s going to make it look absolutely ridiculous that they sent Eovaldi and Hernandez, two of their most talented options to bolster the rotation, to the bullpen.
4. Is Chris Sale trying to fire up his team with his masochistic postgame comments?
All year the Red Sox ace has been crushing himself harder than even the most critical TV analyst could. This week, he offered another harsh self-assessment. Check out some of the highlights during his postgame interviews this year:
April 9, after allowing five runs in four innings to the Blue Jays: “I’m struggling. I don’t know if I’ve ever pitched like this in my life. … This isn’t the hard-work league. This is the do-good league. … This wasn’t us not playing good. This was me sucking today.”
April 28, after allowing four runs (two earned) in seven innings to the Rays: “It’s a love-hate relationship; I’ve loved this game for the same reason I hate it.”
May 14, after allowing two runs in seven innings and striking out 17 against the Rockies: “It’s pretty crappy timing to give up a two-run homer and give a team a new life. I’ve got to be better in those situations.”
June 26, after allowing five runs in six innings to the White Sox: “For some reason I suck here (at Fenway Park).”
Wednesday, after allowing five runs in 5⅔ innings to the Jays: “What am I, 3-8? That’s absolutely embarrassing. That’s not what I need to be and that’s not who I need to be for this team. On a team like this, they need me to be better and I haven’t been there for them. I’m standing before you as frustrated as I’ve ever been, just to be honest.”
And that’s just a sample. This guy has been hammering himself all year. One has to think Sale is just being accountable and doing his best to fire up his teammates. Are they going to pick him up, after he picked them up so often in the last two years?
5. The $6.25 million spent on Steve Pearce was the most questionable decision of the offseason.
Looking back, if the Red Sox knew they were willing to get as high as $68 million over four years for Nathan Eovaldi — which would push them to within $10 million of the highest level of the luxury tax threshold — why did they spend $6.25 million Pearce and leave themselves without any additional funding to fill other holes?
Hindsight always is 20/20, but now it seems silly. They were all-in on Dustin Pedroia as the second baseman, counting on an aging and hobbling Eduardo Nunez to fill in if it didn’t work out. Brock Holt was supposed to be the utility man. They had no infield depth, save from Chavis, who they didn’t want to bring up this early but had to.
In the bullpen, it seems like a broken record now but the Sox just failed to address it at all. They were so excited about trading for Colten Brewer they just about stopped adding pieces after that. Brewer has a 4.74 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.
Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez were the only depth starters they had, and both got hurt. Between injuries and inconsistency, swingmen are difficult to count on given the wacky nature of the role. It’s not easy to do it well all year, much less multiple years in a row.
Pearce, 36, is injured again and has hit .180 with a .503 OPS in 29 games.
And now, some interesting numbers from the first half (stats entering Friday):
1. Pablo Sandoval: .287 average, .884 OPS, 17 doubles, 10 home runs in 184 plate appearances for the San Francisco Giants.
Being paid $18 million by the Red Sox this year, the 32year-old is back to switchhitting again, though all his homers have been hit lefthanded. He’s playing first base and third, where he has just three errors in 23 games.
2. Drew Pomeranz: 6.25 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 77 strikeouts, 33 walks in 63⅓ innings for the Giants.
Most importantly, he’s averaging less than five innings per start, which was often the biggest knock on Pomeranz when he was in Boston. And strangely, his fastball velocity is back to 92 mph after he averaged 90 mph for the Sox last year.
3. Joe Kelly: 5.76 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 35 strikeouts, 14 walks in 29⅔ innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Sox never were going to pay him the $25 million over three years he got from the Dodgers, and that’s looking like a smart decision thus far. But Kelly is starting to come around. Since May 28, he’s held hitters to a .174 average with a 1.46 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 12⅓ innings.
4. Red Sox bullpen: 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 6 BB/9, 2.25 HR/9 in 40 innings since June 22.
They’re exhausted. They’re thin on depth. And they desperately need the All-Star break.
5. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers combined: .323 AVG, 31 HR, 118 RBI, 131 R
6. Rest of the Red Sox offense: .256 AVG, 97 HR, 340 RBI, 353 R