Why Brady is primed to light up Philly
Typically torches Schwartz defenses
FOXBORO — It’s been more than a month since Tom Brady looked like his Hall of Fame self.
Quietly, he’s fired just four touchdowns passes in his last four games. He’s thrown an interception in three of those four, each time registering a QB rating below 90. Brady’s bailed from pressure, feeling the heat of opposing defenses after he set the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets on fire to start the year.
Reasons to believe in a rebound to his old form in Philadelphia are in abundance. There’s the Patriots’ recent bye, for starters. His 42-year old bones will be rested Sunday, and his brain packed with extra Eagles insights.
But the greatest reason for Brady’s resurgence has nothing to do with him. It’s Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.
Since 2010, Brady has tortured Schwartz during the coach’s stops with the Lions, Bills and Eagles. In most of their meetings, Schwartz entered with a top-5 defense by DVOA. By game’s end, Brady reduced them all to rubble.
How? By staying one step ahead of the veteran coach.
“I think he has a reason for everything that he does,” Brady said. “He just doesn’t (say) ‘Oh, let’s try this call.’ I think there’s a method to what he’s trying to accomplish as a playcaller.”
Their most memorable matchup was their last — Super Bowl LII.
The Patriots never punted in a 4133 defeat, as Brady threw for a Super Bowl-record 505 passing yards and three touchdowns. It was an unprecedented offensive performance in every sense — except in the context of his history with Schwartz. Since 2010, Brady’s completed 66% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and zero picks against him, while averaging more than 400 yards per game.
Worse yet, Schwartz’s defenses have procured one turnover from the Patriots since 2002, Brandon Graham’s strip sack in Super Bowl LII. Historically, they’ve been built on zone coverage fronted by a four-man rush, which, according to NFL Films producer and film guru Greg Cosell, would naturally put Philly at a disadvantage on Sunday.
“When the Patriots are in normal down-and-distance, that’s when they do a lot of their quick (passing) game stuff. You know, the power play-action, the kind of stuff we see all the time; the staples. And that kind of stuff is hard to play zone against because you’re giving guys free releases,” Cosell said. “You’re not disrupting anything. So do you look and say, ‘Well, let’s play man and at least try to disrupt some routes off the line of scrimmage?'”
Rarely under Schwartz have the Eagles played more man than their last two games. Cosell ascribed the change to improved health at cornerback, where starters Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills should be available with nickelback Avonte Maddox this weekend. Bill Belichick said Friday he was only sure that Schwartz would mix his coverages against Brady.
“I’m sure he’ll keep it moving on us. I don’t know that we’ll be able to predict what he’s in,” Belichick said. “Whatever those percentages may or may not have been in some other weeks, I mean, there’s no guarantee that’s what it’s going to be against us, and how he sees us and how he wants to match up against us. And again, I think that will vary from situation to situation.”
Even if the Eagles opt for more man coverage, the Patriots are more equipped to defeat it than they have been in two months when Antonio Brown roamed the sideline. Mohamed Sanu has hit the field running, catching 10 passes in his second game as a Patriot two weeks ago at Baltimore. He and Julian Edelman now form a terrific two-receiver tandem, with first-round rookie N’Keal Harry expected to make his debut behind them Sunday.
Even if Harry is still unpolished as a route runner or his chemistry with Brady remains in its infancy, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound wideout can box out most corners for a jump ball. He can offer a wide sideline target. He can win on slants and curls.
He can bail Brady out of tight-window throws, which he may have to considering the Eagles’ increased blitz rate.
Because in addition to their uptick in man-to-man defense, Philly has blitzed more often since the start of October. It hasn’t yielded consistent success — the Vikings and Cowboys both dropped more than 35 points on the Eagles — but their pressure rate and sack totals have shot up significantly. Then again historically, blitzing Brady has been a poor idea, and Schwartz hasn’t stuck with the blitz.
Whether because of the coach’s career tendencies or the quarterback’s, Cosell doubts the pressure calls will continue.
“It might be a situational thing if he feels like, ‘Hey, here’s a good spot for me to do that,” Cosell said. “But I don’t think he’s going to be blitz-heavy.”
And so, Schwartz is back to square one; staring at the challenge of how to game plan for Brady with few quality options available.
Whether he sees man or zone, blitz or standard rush, all signs point to Brady being back to his old self in Philly.