Don’t overpay in FA market
How the Pats can rebound and get back to the Super Bowl
Welcome to How to Fix the Patriots!
This week, we’re unveiling five steps the Pats can take to return to the Super Bowl. We kicked off this series Monday with an offensive fix that could have helped them survive the Titans in the playoffs, then turned to their pass defense on Tuesday and wound up back on offense to reload the tight ends Wednesday.
Today, we explain why making a big splash in free agency would be the wrong way to address the hole at wide receiver.
It’s tempting. Backing up a Brink’s truck into A.J. Green’s driveway.
Or Amari Cooper’s. Or Emmanuel Sanders’. Or throwing money at any bigname, free-agent wide receiver and praying he can single-handedly solve the Patriots’ passing problems.
After all, the Pats will have some cash this offseason.
They’re projected to holster between $30-$40 million in cap space entering the new league year, depending on how negotiations unfold with Tom Brady, player incentives and a few other factors. Though, those figures don’t account for the potential re-signings of Brady, Devin McCourty, Kyle Van Noy or Joe Thuney among others. Retaining just two of those four could easily eat up more than half of the team’s space.
They ought to be prioritized, too. Best to put the Brink’s truck in park.
The Patriots could also go the draft route to replenish their receivers room. But that appears unlikely. Before N’Keal Harry, Bill Belichick had taken just one wideout in the first three rounds of the draft since 2010; a silent acknowledgment of the impossible challenge rookie receivers initially face in Foxboro.
Like most teams, investing in established veterans is the smart play here for the Pats. Now amid their most critical offseason in years, it’s the best play. And there’s a way to solve their most pressing issue without shattering the cap sheet.
The problem
Let’s start internally. Julian Edelman turns 34 in May. Mohamed Sanu is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro. Harry completely flopped as a rookie.
The Pats’ receiving corps was and remains one of the least threatening in the league. One free-agent addition won’t suddenly turn them into a defensive nightmare.
Plus, Green turns 32 in July. He’s basically missed half a season in two of the last three years. He’s been open with his desire of being paid like a top-flight wideout, which would put him safely in the $15 million per year range and out of the Patriots’ reach.
Even if that sinks to around $12 million, Green’s injury history could put the team at significant risk (only two players currently count more than $10 million against the cap), and his deal might still strap them for cash when pursuing other free agents. And that’s only if Green, a top-10 player in this upcoming free-agent class, agrees to drop his asking price.
Cooper certainly isn’t going there, and Sanders, who got $10 million this season, could soon sign for more.
Bottom line: Another big swing at a big name without shedding other salary isn’t the move. The Pats took their hacks with Harry, Sanu and Antonio Brown. Those were three strikes, so they should be out of the market.
The fix
Trades.
Last October, the Pats acquired Sanu, who’s set to make $6 million this season, for a second-round pick. They traded a first-round pick for Brandin Cooks in 2017, when Cooks made just $1.5 million. A decade earlier, they shipped a secondrounder to Miami for Wes Welker, then added Randy Moss at the expense of a fourth-rounder and a team-friendly deal.
This is their sweet spot. Trade targets in 2020 should include receivers with one full year remaining on their contracts, like Sanu. Most players still on their rookie deals would minimize both the financial hit and trade cost. Of course, cheap, young, productive players are the most valuable commodity in every league.
So forget fantasizing about any deal involving top-end players who fit that mold like Chris Godwin, a free agent in 2021.
However, what about Dede Westbrook? Or Chris Conley? Playing underneath clear No. 1 option D.J. Chark, both Jaguars wideouts are set to hit the market in 2021 and will make less than $3 million and $1 million, respectively, next year. Last season, either would have easily ranked as the Pats’ second-leading wide receiver, as Westbrook caught 66 passes and Conley totaled 775 receiving yards.
Another 2021 free agent to consider could be Taywan Taylor, who demonstrated decent potential in Tennessee before he was dealt to the Browns last August and proved to be an on-field zero. Perhaps Cleveland would part ways with the 24year-old, who’s one season removed from posting 37 receptions for 446 yards with Marcus Mariota as his quarterback. The same could be asked of the Rams and Josh Reynolds, also 24, who finished with 402 yards and five touchdowns less than 13 months ago.
Aiming bigger with the Browns, how about Odell Beckham Jr.? The 4-year, $60 million remains of his contract would match or likely exceed what Green will ask for, but also offer significant control over a player whose stock is presumably as low as it will be after a fairly underwhelming year. He would distort defensive coverages like no player on the roster.
The Pats could ship out some salary to absorb Beckham’s deal, too.
Otherwise, Damerie Byrd (Arizona), Demarcus Robinson (Kansas City) and Breshad Perriman (Tampa Bay) are reasonable free-agent options come March. Playing for receiver-rich teams, all of them caught more passes than Phillip Dorsett did.
In April, the Pats should also dip into one of the deepest receiver draft classes in modern history, even if any rookie is unlikely to contribute early and won’t appeal to Brady. Because the point isn’t to lure Brady back. It’s to build a true title contender, not just a playoff team, in 2020.
Along those lines, it’s reasonable to hope that Sanu will be better next season. Harry should be, as well. It would be unreasonable to think they can carry this position to a new level by themselves.
But there’s no question their respective rises paired with more reasonablypriced veterans could get the jobdone.