A campaign trail of tears
Elizabeth Warren hasn’t even lost yet and she’s already started the stages of grief.
Denial.
Those polls showing Warren getting her clock cleaned by Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire are wrong. We’re gonna pull a John Kerry. Kerry’s campaign was written off in 2004, then he came back to win Iowa and New Hampshire, remember? Anger. Warren’s post-debate venting at Bernie Sanders — refusing to shake his hand and accusing him of calling her a liar on national TV — would certainly indicate she is mad at the Vermont senator for stealing the progressive mantle that should be hers. Bargaining.
That would explain the interminable and deluded memo written by campaign manager Roger Lau, in which he outlines Warren’s new path to the nomination — which doesn’t seem to include winning Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina.
“We expect this to be a long nomination fight and have built our campaign to sustain well past Super Tuesday and stay resilient no matter what breathless media narratives come when voting begins,” Lau writes. “The four early contests are just the beginning.”
Let’s put this through the Battenfeld Translator.
When Warren loses Iowa and New Hampshire, which is in her backyard, the “breathless media narrative” will be that she lost. And when she loses
Nevada and South Carolina, the “narrative” will be that she’s through. But don’t worry, all you Warren devotees, because we’re just getting started.
Super Tuesday is next and that’s when we’ll, um, continue to lose. Except maybe Massachusetts. We have a shot at beating Bernie there.
Then there’s the next stop along Warren’s march to the nomination — the “Post-Super Tuesday March States.” That includes places like Florida, Ohio and Michigan.
“We knew that this primary process was never going to be easy,” Lau writes. “While billionaires may be able to buy their way into the conversation, it will be a broad, grassroots effort and organization that delivers the Democratic nomination.”
In other words, don’t worry about Mike Bloomberg and his billions. Ignore those national polls showing him gaining ground and tied with Warren.
Next stop on the Warren express, the “April-June
States,” which include New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Guam. OK, maybe Bloomberg wins New York, and Biden wins Pennsylvania and Bernie wins Wisconsin. But Guam is an absolute lock for us. We are so organized there.
And that’s when we lock up the nomination, got it? Now get out there and spread the word.
Lau’s cheerleading is obviously designed to keep up morale in the face of new polls showing Warren foundering. But upbeat email memos won’t work. The bottom line is Warren has to win at least New Hampshire, or her campaign will quickly unravel. Having impressive field offices in Wisconsin won’t matter if you keep losing the early states.
That’s when the next stage of grief comes in, depression. And finally, when Biden or Bloomberg or Bernie gets the nomination, acceptance.
But for many pols, that’s the toughest one. Just ask John Kerry.