DIDN’T TRADE JIMMY G?
In an alternate universe, Jimmy Garoppolo reports to Gillette Stadium on Sunday to no fanfare. He is a Patriot. He’s been a Patriot. He has succeeded Tom Brady as the face of the franchise. This game against the 49ers is, well, just another game.
Because in this universe, the Pats chose to keep Garoppolo over Brady in October 2017, when in reality they shipped him to San Francisco for a second-round pick.
There are several accounts of why Bill Belichick traded Garoppolo midseason, ranging from an edict from ownership to a simple admission he couldn’t afford to keep Garoppolo with free agency looming. What’s certain is the trade did not happen because Bill Belichick awarded Garoppolo to the highest bidder. He called a respected offensive coach who needed a quarterback, Kyle Shanahan, and struck a deal.
But what if that call never happened?
It is impossible to know how the past three years, when the Patriots reached two Super Bowls and won one with Brady, would have unfolded had the team instead committed to Garoppolo. But let’s explore.
The following scenario operates under a few basic — albeit seemingly crazy — assumptions:
The Patriots trade Tom Brady during the 2018 offseason. Yes, after an MVP campaign and another Super Bowl appearance. Belichick seizes an opportunity he sees to sell high on a quarterback who will turn 41 that August and has two years remaining on an insanely team-friendly deal with minimal guarantees. The Pats rightfully believe the assets they return on this deal will allow them to bolster an aging roster for the next three to five years.
Rob Gronkowski follows Brady out the door. The Patriots planned to trade Gronkowski to Detroit that spring before the tight end’s threat to retire voided the deal. Gronkowski is on record saying the only quarterback he’ll ever play with is Brady, so this is actually far from implausible.
For simplicity purposes, the Pats more or less invest the money freed up by their Brady and Gronkowski trades into Garoppolo, who agrees to a long-term deal. Their salary cap circumstances for the 2018 and 2019 seasons — again, for simplicity purposes — compare similarly to reality.
Garoppolo remains healthy, avoiding the ACL tear that ruined his 2018 season. He consistently performs in line with how he played last season, the largest sample of uninterrupted play we have available. In 2019, Garoppolo ranked 11th among starters by Pro Football Focus player grades, 12th by QBR and third by yards per attempt.
Once the fan rage simmers down in New England, Garoppolo takes the field for the 2018 opener against Houston. And his new offense... struggles.
More than half the Pats’ opponents through Week 8 that season owned a top-15 pass defense, per Football Outsiders’ opponent- and- situation- adjusted metric, DVOA. The Pats stumble to a 1-2 mark, then rebound against the Adam Gase-led Dolphins and hurting Colts, just as they did with Brady. But Kansas City knocks them out the following week, with Patrick Mahomes establishing himself as the front runner for the MVP award he’ll eventually win.
Garoppolo and his rookie tight end — pick any of 2018 draftees Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Chris Herndon or worse — finally begin to establish a rhythm midseason, just as Brady once did with Gronkowski. Every result in the second half of the season — when every game aside from losses at Miami and Pittsburgh were decided by two scores — stands, including the Miami loss because Brady (27-43, 358 yards, 3 TDs) played at a level Garoppolo likely doesn’t reach.
(Gronkowski also decimated Miami that day, so his absence in this universe is notable.)
Overall in 2018, Brady finished as the NFL’s fifth-best quarterback, per PFF grades, and ninth by QBR. That dropoff leaves the Pats at 10-6 and hosting a Wild Card game, while the 11-win Texans edge them for a first-round bye. So they welcome the upstart Colts, who finished eighth overall in DVOA that season, one spot behind the Brady-led Patriots.
Indy’s defense, however, ranked No. 4 against the run, meaning the Pats can’t rush their way back to the Super Bowl. In fact, they don’t even escape the Wild Card round. Garoppolo falls in a close duel with Andrew Luck, who extends the best season of his career by sending the Patriots reeling in their first year postBrady.
However, that disappointing finish ultimately spurs the front office into action it’s failed to successfully take in reality: adding weapons. The Patriots sign wide receiver Adam Humphries in free agency on their first attempt, instead of re-upping their offer after he agrees to a deal in Tennessee. Selecting in the low-20s, they still pick N’Keal Harry in the first round of the 2019 draft.
Over the regular season, the Pats roll to an 8-0 start against a cupcake schedule. Thanks to Garoppolo and an improved receiving corps, they avoid the career-worst stretch from Brady that doomed them down the stretch in losses to Houston, Kansas City and Miami. The Patriots instead clinch a first-round bye with a 13-3 overall record.
This time, Garoppolo’s projected season-long numbers compare favorably to Brady’s: 8th in PFF grades, 19th in QBR and 28th in yards per attempt. The Pats then welcome the Texans, an average team by DVOA, in the divisional round and breeze by them en route to Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game.
Does Garoppolo play well enough to reach the Super Bowl? No. The Chiefs were inevitable last season. But the Patriots have hope.
Heading into 2020, Garoppolo has entered the prime of his career, they’ve returned arguably the NFL’s best secondary and carry significant cap flexibility, unburdened by the dead money Brady’s contract left in reality. Sensing they are a weapon or two away from a title, the Pats land another wide receiver in the coming months.
And soon enough, they prepare to play the 49ers in an empty stadium amid a global pandemic in a world that sounds far fetched, but could have been just a phone call away.