Pats face reigning MVP Jackson
Should be more prepared with Newton on scout team
The Patriots’ narrowing path to the postseason runs through the reigning league MVP.
It’s that simple.
The Pats are 7-point home underdogs to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, the largest spread they’ve faced in Foxboro since months before they won their first Super Bowl. That season, Baltimore bullied most of the league as the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Ravens’ winning formula hasn’t changed much since: pair a punishing run game with a dominant defense and ultimately outmuscle their opponents.
That recipe delivered the No. 1 seed in the AFC and an MVP award for Jackson last season, but the running game has lost some horsepower. While the Patriots have absorbed more significant losses, especially defensively, there’s a chance they could corral Jackson and Co. on Sunday and prevent themselves from falling further than the AFC’s 11th seed. Why?
Of all people, Jackson explained it Wednesday. The Ravens are suddenly more predictable.
“(Opponents) are calling out our plays, stuff like that,” Jackson told “The Rich Eisen Show.” “They know what we’re doing. Sometimes, stuff won’t go our way, if they’re beating us to the punch.”
After bruising its way to a NFL-best 33.2 points per game, Baltimore now ranks eighth amid a league-wide offensive explosion. That number is slightly inflated by touchdowns scored on defense and special teams. In their past four kickoffs, the Ravens are averaging fewer than 23 offensive points per game.
After the first game of that stretch, a 27-3 win at Cincinnati capped by a Baltimore fumble return for a touchdown, Bengals safety Jessie Bates declared Jackson only wants to pass to his top targets: wide receiver Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews. It looks like the rest of the league heard.
Through that Sunday, Brown and Andrews averaged eight receptions per game. Since then, they’re barely averaging five per contest. Provided Pats AllPro cornerback Stephon Gilmore returns to play Sunday — having now participated in three straight practices — it’s possible he could shadow Brown and eliminate him altogether.
Of course, then there’s the Ravens’ rushing attack game. Because while holding the Jets to 3.6 yards per carry last Monday marked improvement, the fact the Patriots continue to field practicesquad players and backups across their front seven gives cause for grave concern Sunday. Then again, there’s evidence of predictability.
Over the past two weeks, Jackson has kept the ball on option runs at a far higher rate, and while dangerous as a runner, he was limited to 4.06 and 4.46 yards per carry in those games by the Steelers and Colts, respectively. Of course, those defenses boast far more talent than then Pats. But their game plans should be fairly replicable.
A year ago, the Patriots’ nudged Jackson into 16 rush attempts. By game’s end, he’d averaged 3.81 yards per carry, his third-lowest mark of the year. Most of Baltimore’s damage was inflicted between the tackles, and on a fumble return for a touchdown in the third quarter that snuffed out the Pats’ hopes of a comeback.
Undoubtedly, the Patriots will need to play from ahead to beat the Ravens on Sunday. They’re in far worse position to contain them compared to 2019. But there is another advantage worth noting: months of practicing against a Cam Newton-led offense that incorporates many of the same option runs.
More than ever before in Bill Belichick’s tenure, they’re equipped to handle these runs that drove them crazy a year ago.
“The Ravens have their way of doing it and they’re in the pistol a lot,” Belichick said Wednesday, “but we’ve dealt with that, and so I wouldn’t say we’re starting all over again, like we might have been in other years where we hadn’t faced those kind of plays.”
Now, having sorted all the motion and misdirection with their experience, the Pats understand most of what Baltimore executes revolves around a handful of concepts.
“When you look at the big picture, it’s really just a simple offense,” Patriots safety Adrian Phillips said. “It’s just a lot of smoke and mirrors.”
Phillips was the first to stop Jackson in his tracks two years ago when his old team, the Chargers, upset the Ravens in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Back then, Jackson wasn’t operating Baltimore’s current offensive system, but the idea of flooding the field with defensive backs — as Los Angeles did — could surface again Sunday. The Pats’ deepest position group is by far their defensive backs, and trading a few pounds by playing an extra safety or corner instead of a backup linebacker should be a net positive for New England from a talent and experience standpoint.
Because like Phillips, most of the Pats’ other defensive backs have seen the Ravens’ offense slow in 2020 and understands why.
“I think it’s like anything: the more you see something, the better guys can play,” Patriots safety Devin McCourty said. “But I would say still for their offense, you don’t really see people playing it on a consistent basis good. They just do a good job of getting matchups. Getting, whether it’s Lamar Jackson or the backs in some 1-on-1 open-field spaces … they find ways to make one guy miss, and then once he gets in the open field, that’s when they’re at their best.”
So ultimately, it comes down to Jackson; the face of the offense that started the Patriots’ slide last year, knocked the first domino down that doomed their dynasty and is now circling back to deliver a knockout blow on their 2020 season.
“You want to be the guys that shut him down,” Phillips said. “He’s going to go out there; he’s going to make some plays, but if we do what we’re supposed to, then we’ll come out with the win.”