Pats are on the right path
But still not the best in division
The Patriots have made up a lot of ground during the first few days of free agency. They’ve put themselves back in the playoff conversation after an unprecedented barrage of signings.
Spending more than $200 million has them up off the mat, and then some.
But have they totally bridged the gap that exists with Buffalo? Are the Patriots now capable of overtaking the Bills in the AFC East? Not just yet. They’re close. They’re not going to get trounced by four touchdowns, like they did during their Week 16 matchup with the Bills last season. At the very least, they’re going to be contenders for the division crown.
But when it comes to regaining the top spot, the Bills still have a leg up based on what’s played out thus far. They’re still the favorite to rule the division.
While the Patriots have plugged holes and made significant upgrades all over the lot, they still don’t stack up with the Bills, or most of the AFC contenders in the conference, in one important area: quarterback.
In the big games, against the better teams on the schedule, the Patriots don’t have the edge at quarterback.
The Bills have Josh Allen. That’s the difference right now.
With Cam Newton slotted as the starter, there are still question marks.
He should be better with another year in the system, and more weapons around him. But Newton doesn’t put the Patriots over the top, even with all the talent now surrounding him, especially at tight end with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.
Having an improved defense will help the cause. The additions of Matt Judon, Kyle Van Noy, Devon Godchaux, Henry Anderson and Jalen Mills gives the Patriots one of the better defenses in the league.
And having Bill Belichick on the sidelines continues to be an advantage. It’s just hard to push the Patriots over the top at this stage given Newton’s deficiencies.
ESPN analyst Damien Woody agreed.
Even spending like a “drunk sailor” in free agency, as Woody put it, he also isn’t convinced they’ll overtake the Bills.
“They’ve gotten a lot better. The only place they could go was up. The cupboard was bare. I think anybody watching the Patriots could see they had so much talent deficiency on their roster,” said Woody. “All the bodies they’ve added in free agency, along with the guys who have opted back in, this is a much better roster. I still don’t think they’re better than Buffalo right now.
“Buffalo is still the team to beat,” Woody went on. “They still have the best quarterback in the division, with Josh Allen. To me, that’s the big difference. There’s a big gap between Josh Allen and Cam Newton.”
Compared with the Patriots, the Bills have done little in free agency. The difference is they didn’t need to do much with their AFC East champion roster.
The Bills have already proven themselves on the field, getting to the AFC Championship game last year, while the Patriots still have to show what they can do with the new pieces assembled.
They might look good on paper, but it remains to be seen how it’s going to translate on the field during what’s now expected to be a 17-game season.
The Bills accomplished a lot just by keeping their important in-house free agents — LB Matt Milano, OT Daryl Williams, OG Jon Feliciano — and adding yet another weapon for Allen by signing Emmanuel Sanders. That was just as significant as the Patriots collection of moves.
“Sometimes it’s not about adding pieces from the outside, it’s keeping the pieces on the inside, and keeping your guys, and they’ve done a great job keeping their guys,” Woody said of the Bills. “They’ll add in the draft, but they’re going to rely on their continuity, and for me, that trumps anything the Patriots have done so far.”
As for the other teams in the division, the Jets have added on with pass rusher Carl Lawson and receiver Corey Davis, and have a ton of draft capital to make some noise with new head coach Robert Saleh at the helm. But they’re still the Jets. The Dolphins should be decent once again. They’ve made a few trades, and added on in free agency, yesterday signing wideout Will Fuller. But school’s still out on Tua Tagovailoa and how much they’ve improved from last year’s 10-6 team.
The view here is the Patriots, with their haul in free agency, have climbed over the Fins at this point.
They just need more at quarterback to complete the makeover and vault over Buffalo.
If the unthinkable and improbable happens — bringing Deshaun Watson to New England — that would do the trick.
But Watson’s still a pipe dream. While the Patriots and Texans have made a few trades — Marcus Cannon, Ryan Izzo — it’s still hard to believe Nick Caserio will hand a franchise quarterback over to Bill Belichick.
He may wind up trading him, but Caserio knows he’ll be lynched for delivering Watson to his former employer.
Beyond Watson, there were rumblings about Marcus Mariota and the Raiders on Thursday. They want him to take a pay cut, and Mariota balked.
The Patriots are likely waiting to see what shakes out there, but having Mariota still doesn’t register as the quarterback solution.
Newton, and a quarterback to be named later in the draft seems to be the way the Patriots are headed, barring another miracle — landing Jimmy Garoppolo.
So they’re getting there. They’ve made tremendous strides on both sides of the ball, and also managed to keep Nick Folk, signing the kicker Thursday.
It’s just premature at this stage to think they’ll rise back to their familiar spot atop the division.