PATS RISK SLOW START WITHOUT GILMORE
Lost amid all the hullabaloo over Cam Newton’s release this week was an even bigger development for the Patriots’ immediate future.
Their best player won’t suit up until Week 7 — at the absolute earliest.
Stephon Gilmore remained on the team’s Physically Unable to Perform list through Tuesday’s final cuts, a move that will sideline him through late October and perhaps beyond. Gilmore is embroiled in a contract dispute with the front office, as he supposedly continues to rehab from a partially torn quad suffered last December. Days after the injury, NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport reported Gilmore should be able to participate in “some portion of the offseason program.”
Of course, Gilmore skipped every OTA and the Patriots’ mandatory minicamp, a stand against being underpaid.
Perhaps Gilmore endured a setback after he told NFL reporter Josina Anderson on July 9 he could be ready for training camp if needed. If not, the Pats have chosen to play hardball with their star corner and incurred significant risk for their season hopes.
Before Gilmore is eligible to return, the Patriots will face two top-10 quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Dak Prescott, two divisional opponents and a 2020 playoff team when the Saints visit Sept. 26. While that stretch hardly constitutes a murderer’s row of passing attacks, including a Week 5 trip to Houston, it’s threatening enough in a critical time, especially with a rookie quarterback now under center. The Pats should be favored in at least three of those games, though they could realistically go 3-3, a start that would shrink their margin of error over the second half of the season, when the playoff road gets much rockier.
Beginning in November, they’ll face the Bills twice and other conference contenders in the Browns, Titans, Colts and Dolphins. The Patriots cannot start slowly.
Without Gilmore in September and most of October, the Pats are expected to start Jalen Mills, who blossomed into a do-it-all safety in Philadelphia only after he couldn’t survive as an outside cornerback. In 2019, Mills graded as the NFL’s ninth-worst man-to-man corner among those who took at least 200 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. His coverage stats did improve last year, though he still ranked in the 44th-percentile of man-coverage grades among defensive backs.
This is the player filling the shoes of a former Defensive Player of the Year.
After Mills, former second-round pick Joejuan Williams is Plan B. Williams took the second-most snaps among Pats defenders this preseason, a three-game audition to make the team. The Patriots’ preseason leader in defensive snaps, corner Michael Jackson, got cut. Williams came close.
Then there’s new rookie Shaun Wade, whom the
Ravens deemed expendable because of their stacked depth chart and his struggles in training camp. Wade got roasted as an outside corner at Ohio State, where he initially broke out as a nickelback and part-time safety; a role he could very well carve out in New England.
Except that’s the same role Mills is best suited for in this defense, and one Jonathan Jones plays better than both of them. After Jones, the Pats’ depth chart lists only Justin Bethel, a break-in-caseof-emergency option. These are the corners at Bill Belichick’s disposal opposite J.C. Jackson, with former 1,000-yard receivers DeVante Parker, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper on the schedule, plus Corey Davis, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. Belichick cannot lean on his preferred man-coverage calls. Gilmore’s replacements are ill-suited for those schemes.
OK, so the Patriots play more zone, like they did previously without Gilmore. Here’s the problem: Brady shredded zone coverage last season, producing a QB rating north of 100, per Sports Info. Solutions, just as Prescott did in 2020 and 2019. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa posted a 91.5 QB rating versus zone compared to 78.7 against man-to-man last year, when Jets rookie Zach Wilson earned the highest PFF grade of any quarterback in college football when facing zone. And in 2020, the Saints were also a top-five pass offense against zone, despite All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas missing nine games.
Even with a new quarterback in Jameis Winston, New Orleans cannot be discounted under offensive whiz Sean Payton, whose offenses have averaged more than 28 points per game against Belichick since he took over. Straight zone is a sure way to get killed.
The Patriots’ best hope is their reloaded front seven applies enough pressure on these quarterbacks to bail out a Gilmoreless secondary. Matt Judon, Josh Uche and Dont’a Hightower provided legitimate hope this summer for a revived pass rush. Except, there’s cause for concern there, too.
Against half of these quarterbacks, most pressure may not get home. Brady, Prescott and Tagovailoa ranked in the top 10 for quickest snap-to-throw times among starters last season. All three unloaded the ball in 2.61 seconds or less on their average dropbacks. The Pats’ pass rush can take its time against Wilson, Winston and projected Texans starter Tyrod Taylor, though Wilson and Taylor are threats to scramble, and Winston will attack deep.
The bottom line is there are no quick fixes for replacing a two-time All-Pro. For the past three seasons, most of the Patriots’ defensive game plans started with a single question: whom should Gilmore shadow and shut down? Now, questions and concerns abound.