Are Pats in tight bind?
Untested Henry, Smith have a lot on shoulders headed into season kick off
For six months, the Patriots offense has lived in the abstract.
It isn’t Mac Jones’ fault. Or even Bill Belichick’s.
The reason the Pats will head into the regular season without proof of offensive concept is their tight ends.
Hunter Henry suffered a shoulder injury shortly before the team’s preseason opener, then missed all three exhibitions and only recently was cleared for contact. Jonnu Smith sat out one preseason game and saw just 20 snaps between the other two. Their absences have extended a void that began in free agency and can still only be filled by the imagination.
How will the offense look? Can it succeed with so many new faces?
Will the Patriots be runcentric or more balanced?
However the offense takes shape, Henry and Smith, the team’s highest-paid and most established weapons, will be featured. They are the rock upon which Belichick has rebuilt his offense. And offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels isn’t discouraged whatsoever by their lack of time together this summer.
“I feel very confident in both players’ aptitude and understanding of our system and our operation and what we do offensively and what their roles are in it. That’s because they are very diligent about the work they put in,” McDaniels said. “They prepare very well. … I have no doubts about those two players, in terms of their ability to go out there and perform. They both will be ready to go.”
The Pats famously signed Henry and Smith to contracts worth a combined $87.5 million in free agency, deals that exceeded market expectations. That investment revealed the Patriots view their new tight ends as more than above-average receiving threats or runblockers, which they both are. Henry and Smith are pillars of the offense and program in the post-Brady era.
The magnitude of the moment isn’t lost on Henry.
“We are what we are and we’ve got to go to define that. So I think we’re just all continuing to build chemistry, continue to get to know each other, and I felt like we did that throughout training camp throughout OTAs. You know those times were huge, and so now we got to carry that over into the season,” he said. “And we have a big chance coming up here on Sunday and to kind of show what we’ve, you know, been working on.”
Naturally, the spotlight Jones will attract as a new starting quarterback will overshadow his new tight ends. The truth is their success is tied together.
Signing Henry and Smith was an organizational recommitment to reclaiming the middle of the field, where the Patriots have drawn battle lines for two decades. Belichick has preached winning between the numbers since his days coaching in Cleveland. If Henry and Smith succeed in the box and down the seam, Jones will thrive.
Over the past two seasons, quarterbacks have posted a passer rating north of 100 when targeting Henry or Smith over the middle, according to Pro Football Focus. Against zone coverage anywhere in the field, that rating rockets to higher than 110; a number that should lead to higher playaction rate on early downs, when defenses are most often in zone and Jones can exploit wider throwing lanes.
The trouble is the Dolphins know this.
Under coach Brian Flores, a former Patriots assistant, Miami ranked seventh-best in the NFL at defending tight ends last season, per Football
Outsiders’ opponentand-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. The Dolphins run a multiple defense that may throw safeties, linebackers, Pro Bowl cornerbacks or a combination of defenders at opposing tight ends. And they call more man-to-man than basically everybody.
As the Pats determine who they are offensively through Henry and Smith, Flores will muddy the presnap picture as best he can, and bump the NFL’s best tight ends off-course as they charge downfield into a new era.
“You don’t know what they’ll come out (in), you don’t know who they’ll have on me. You’ve just kind of got to put yourself in the situation that, like, ‘OK, I could probably see this look, I could see that look,'” Smith said. “I’ve just got to prepare myself to the best of my ability.”
In late July, Smith cracked he wants to start another Boston Tea Party, or rather “T-E” party with Henry. His comments typified the energy and anticipation their arrivals generated at the start of training camp. Anything could be possible through them.
Then Henry was sidelined with his injury, and Smith missed time with a rolled ankle. They finally reunited in pads just last week. Asked Monday how good the Patriots offense might be now that he and Henry are healthy again, Smith declined to say, recognizing it’s time for payoff over promotion.
“I’m not here to make any predictions, man. We just come here with our hard hat on and put the work in, you know what I mean? We’re working,” he said. “We expect those results to pay off. We’re not in the business of making predictions. We’re in the business of making it happen.”
It’s been a long wait since March. What’s waiting a few more days to find out?