Fantasy Football bests and busts
There’s not a lot of things better in the world of sports than the opening weekend of NFL play. Even the crap teams are still in it (Looking at you, Dallas). Last year’s disasters are this year’s opportunities. And that’s true of fantasy football as well. Even if you had a bad year, chances are good you came out of your draft feeling like you have a team that can compete.
But some of those guys are gonna stink. So we’re gonna talk about who we like — and who we don’t.
AI:
Attention all Fantasy GMs: Today’s the day. It’s time to set your lineups and get ready for some TNF football.
Here are my bests and busts at each position:
TOP QB: I’m going with Josh Allen.
Now he’s not the obvious choice. You’re probably thinking why not Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray or other obvious veterans. My answer: You can’t get too blinded by the glitz and glam of these guys. Sure — they’re still great fantasy options, but I truly believe Allen is going to take the league by storm this season — returning to MVP form from the jump. He has the talent and tools to take the Bills far.
TOP RB: My take here is Alvin Kamara. I think he’ll see a lot of upside and benefit from QB Jameis Winston checking the ball down early. Some would say you’re crazy for not saying Christian McCaffrey, but he’s extremely injuryprone. Dalvin Cook is no doubt one of the best RB choices simply because of McCaffrey’s injuries. However, he also has had injury issues. He missed nine games over the past few seasons, which is why I took his handcuff — Alexander Mattison —to stash on my bench. Alvin is usually strong and steady and with Jameis in at QB
— I think the Saints will be more reliant on Kamara this season.
TOP WR: My first obvious choice — Tyreek Hill. Between his explosive speed and Mahomes passing him the rock — you really can’t argue against this pick. Maybe you could say Davante Adams, but I just believe the Chiefs have more upside than Green Bay this year.
TOP TE: The rookie himself — Kyle Pitts. He was my favorite rookie in this year’s draft. So much upside. And with
Julio Jones gone — he’ll have an opportunity to take over for the team’s top target.
TOP FANTASY D/ST: Sticking with the home team here — the New England Patriots. Between their draft selections and free agency spending spree — I believe their makeover to the front seven and the return of both Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower will bring them back to ‘boogeymen’ status this season. I know Stephon Gilmore won’t be around for the first six weeks, but they have J.C. Jackson to fill his void. I mean — he had 9 INTs last season.
Ok... now it’s time to switch gears from the best to the busts:
QB BUST: Baker Mayfield. I’ve never been a fantasy fan of Mayfield. I’ve never understood the hype. Every year people think he’s going to finally have his “breakout” season, but he never delivers
to the level he should. I think he’s going to suffer — once again — from the “Odell Beckham effect” — where he fixates on him as his only viable offensive option. And that has just proven to be a big bust.
RB BUST: Derrick Henry. Now before you come to my house with pitchforks — hear me out. Henry is going to lose touches
with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones there. Simple as that. He just won’t have the same fantasy value this season with these offensive editions.
WR BUST: Keenan Allen. His targets may suffer due to the return of Jared Cook and Mike Williams. Plus — a healthy Austin Ekeler.
TE BUST: George Kittle. I love Kittle, but he’s probably going to lose touches due to
Jimmy Garropolo looking to prove himself deep.
D/ST BUST: Rams D/ST. I truly believe the Rams D has been overhyped this offseason.
Alright Bruce — your turn.
BC: I totally agree with your RB bust and totally disagree with your RB best bet. Read on!
QB: I love Kyler Murray. Three years in, he could use a little more support in the running game, but he kind of IS the Arizona running game. He’s averaged 6.0 ypc as a runner, and had 11 TDs on the ground last year. He’s accurate, elusive, and plays in a
wide-open attack with DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona brought in the corpse of AJ Green to its WR group, and if the 33-year old returns to anything approaching his early Bengals form, it will help. The QB I don’t like is Tom Brady.
Just kidding. It’s fun to kick the hornet’s nest though. But there’s no precedent for 44-year-old QBs to be studs.
I really don’t like Kirk Cousins and never have. He topped 30 TDs for the first time in his career last year with 35. Clearly an outlier. The guy’s the modern-day Jeff George.
Guys like Baker Mayfield, Ryan Fitzpatrick and even Mac Jones have a much bigger upside. If you finish below a team with Cousins, you should do something else.
RB: The Patriots’ RB situation has often been unpredictable, but dealing Sony Michel away sends a big signal: Damien Harris is ready. The Pats are gonna play some smashmouth this year. They have some maulers up front, two tight ends, and a rookie QB who
Bill Belichick will protect with a basic game plan based on controlling the ball. If Harris is healthy he should gain 1,200 yards this year. (Remember: Stevan Ridley did that once, and Harris is twice as good as Stevan Ridley.)
I don’t like Derrick Henry OR Alvin Kamara. Obviously those guys have been going 3 and 4 ADP in almost every fantasy draft around. Henry is due to come back to earth and is a complete non-factor in the passing game. Kamara has gone from Drew Brees at QB to Jameis Winston. The 5th-year guy has never run for 1,000 yards and although he averages more than 81 catches a year ... Jameis Winston. I avoided him in drafts.
WR: Terry McLaurin is going to love having FitzMagic around, because Fitz slings it. McLaurin has been going as about the 12th WR taken in most drafts, but to me he’s way, way better than Justin Jefferson or Allen Robinson. On the dislike side, Julio Jones has had year after year of solid numbers, but now he is in Tennessee and that means you’d better like Ryan Tannehill. I don’t, and I also am leery of WRs in their 30s.
TE: Kyle Pitts has all the tools. Matt Ryan has had some pretty good TEs over the years. Seems like a good match. Rookie TEs often struggle, but if anyone is going to break that trend, it’s Pitts. I don’t love Robert Tonyan in Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers does, so he will regress but still be decent. I’ve watched
Hunter Henry since he was in high school back in Arkansas, but here is a guy who just cannot stay healthy. I drafted him anyway (as a backup) but in five pro seasons he’s played 55 games.
Caveat emptor.