MAC’S TIME
All eyes on rookie’s debut today
The Patriots have a rookie quarterback under center, but that hasn’t curbed expectations for Bill Belichick’s team locally, and even beyond.
The bar has been set pretty high. Ten wins is the floor, not the ceiling for the Patriots.
Why such lofty expectations for a 7-9 team? Why doesn’t a playoff berth seem so far-fetched?
Answer: Follow the money.
Expectations for the Patriots go hand in hand with all the cash Belichick sunk into making significant improvements on both sides of the ball.
He didn’t spend $170 million in guaranteed money to have a rebuilding year.
At age 69, the word “rebuild” does not apply to Belichick, who is still chasing Don Shula for the most wins by an NFL coach.
The Hoodie spent that money to field a contending team, no matter the age or experience level of the quarterback under center.
And while rookie quarterbacks are just trying to survive their first year, this is a ready-made team for any quarterback be it Mac Jones or anyone else. If Jones stays the course, and continues to learn and adapt quickly, the Patriots will get back to the dance.
That’s really not a stretch. What else isn’t out of the realm of possibility for the Patriots, who open the season with the Dolphins? Plenty.
Here’s 10 not-so-crazy predictions for the Patriots in 2021.
(Actually, it’s a bunch of hooey I hope sticks).
1. Mac Jones will be the most successful rookie quarterback this season
Well, obviously, there’s a one in five chance. But this one might have a legitimate chance of coming true.
Right now, Jones is in the best situation of the five first-round quarterbacks. Top pick Trevor Lawrence landed on the worst team in football in Jacksonville. So it’s going to be a rough season for him, as good as he looked against Dallas in the preseason.
Ditto Zach Wilson, who landed in New York.
The Jags and Jets don’t have a ton of talent, and are clearly rebuilding. Lawrence and Wilson are certainly talented, and might produce decent individual stats having to throw constantly to try and get back into games, but they’re both going to be hard-pressed to win right out of the gate.
Trey Lance?
He landed on an excellent team with the 49ers, but he’s in a tag-team situation with
Jimmy Garoppolo — at best — to start the year. Lance was up and down in the preseason. He made jaws drop with some of his throws, but was also prone to mistakes. That shouldn’t come as a surprise given he didn’t play last season.
Justin Fields, meanwhile, is
Andy Dalton’s understudy. He’ll take over eventually, but who knows what shape the Bears will be in when Matt Nagy finally pulls the trigger?
With all of that, Jones is in the driver’s seat to start. The Patriots defense is topnotch. So is the offensive line, and running game.
Add a pair of star tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, along with the best coach in the business in Belichick, and the path is paved for Jones to succeed.
He won’t have to sling it all over the field, like Lawrence and Wilson, unless it’s absolutely necessary.
“You don’t have to be Josh Allen. You don’t have to take chances. You don’t have to make acrobatic throws and stuff like that,” Rodney Harrison said when asked about Belichick’s plan for Jones. “The main thing we need you to do, is do your job, and don’t turn the ball over. If he doesn’t turn the ball over, that gives them a chance, because he has so much talent around him.” Agreed.
2. Pats will go 4-2 in the division
Split with Bills. Split with Fins. Sweep Jets.
That doesn’t seem outlandish.
The Patriots went 3-3 last year against the group. They’re at least good for one more win.
The Bills, who finally wrestled a division crown from the Patriots, swept them last year, completely out-classing the Patriots in the second game, but Belichick has a much better team this time around. They’ll take one of two.
The defense will rise up at least once against Allen. Add a ball-control ground attack, and a split with the Bills seems right.
Same with the Dolphins. That’s been their pattern of late, ever since Brian Flores took over as head coach. They’ve split the last four seasons.
As for the Jets, they might be good in another year or two, but in 2021, they will be hard-pressed to beat anyone.
So 4-2, book it.
3. The AFC East will come down to the final week
I have the Patriots with 10 wins heading into their Week 18 game in Miami. I have the Bills with 11 wins at the same point, with a home game left with the Jets the final week, while the Fins also have 10 wins before hosting the Patriots.
That’s a nice little triangle coming down the stretch, although the Bills have a significant advantage based on having a lay-up in the final game.
The Bills schedule is too tough for them to have things wrapped up early. In fact, they might have to rally after their first six games, with the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington Football Team, Kansas City and Tennessee five of those early contests.
They could easily start 3-3. The Patriots could come out 5-1, or even 4-2 based on their opponents. The Fins? They’re looking at 3-3 at best, or 2-4.
How will they finish? Bills 12-5, Pats 11-6, Fins, 9-7.
4. J.C. Jackson’s pick totals will dip
Jackson, who finished with nine interceptions last season, one behind leagueleader Xavien Howard, looked terrific during training camp and the preseason.
He looked like he embraced assuming the top corner job from Stephon Gilmore, who is on the PUP list until Week 7.
The problem?
Why would quarterbacks throw in Jackson’s direction, when completions figure to be much easier to come by on the opposite boundary, where either Jalen Mills or Joejuan Williams are going to reside?
So, he’s going to see fewer balls come his way, and fewer opportunities for picks. It’s not necessarily his fault.
Just a victim of circumstance. In a contract year, to boot.
5. James White will have better year
White had a down year for him last year. It was understandable.
He had to deal with the tragic death of his father in a car accident that also criti
cally injured his mother. That had to be weighing on his mind.
But beyond that, he wasn’t helped by Cam Newton’s problems throwing the football, especially the breadand-butter routes White is noted for running.
Also hurting White’s cause was the fact that defenses didn’t have to worry about covering tight ends, given none of them were noted pass catchers. And after Julian Edelman went down, the wide receiver group didn’t scare anyone, either.
That allowed defenses to focus on White, game plan to take him out and make it more difficult for him to get open.
That won’t be the case this year.
Henry and Smith will open up so many avenues for the receivers, as well as White.
Add in the accuracy of Jones, and White will onceagain be a go-to-guy on passing downs. It’s also possible J.J. Taylor will merit some passing down snaps, and take some reps away from White, but the offensive captain will still be the king of the money down.
6. Matt Judon will have the biggest free-agent impact
The good news for the Patriots? This isn’t a slam dunk. There are plenty of worthy candidates on the list in this category.
While wideouts Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne don’t seem like contenders for this prize, both tight ends, Henry and Smith, could earn that crown. Smith is a dynamic player, and will be used all over the field. He’s a great candidate.
But so is Trent Brown. The massive tackle could give Judon a run for his money, too. Defensively, Kyle Van Noy also fits in this category, as does defensive tackle Davon
Godchaux.
So why Judon?
He’s going to be a menace to opposing quarterbacks, and really make the pass rush come alive. Without Gilmore until at least Week 7, the pass rush is going to have to help out the secondary, and Judon will lead that charge.
But he’s so much more than a sack artist. He’ll also have an impact as a great locker room presence, and brings a much-needed edge to the defense.
Let’s have Belichick explain.
“I’m glad we have him. He seems to figure things out pretty quickly, and has fit in well with the group. Has a great work ethic. Shows up to work every day. Competes hard,” Belichick said. “I think that’s a good thing for all of us to build off of, and try to emulate the attitude and the toughness and the effort that he comes in with on a consistent basis.
“Whether it be game day like we saw last night, or meetings, practices, walkthroughs, whatever it is. He’s been a good addition and I’m glad we have him on the team.”
7. Christian Barmore will be the best Patriots rookie not named Mac Jones
Rhamondre Stevenson, who was fascinating to watch during the preseason, gets some votes. So does Ronnie Perkins.
But Barmore, who is 6-foot-4, 310 pounds, is a great fit in the defense, and looks the part. Judon endorsed him. That’s enough for me.
“I think Barmore is going to be an amazing player in this league, just the physicality that he brings,” Judon said after the Giants game. “When he starts to learn the game more, and not saying that he doesn’t, but it’s a different level. The more reps he gets, the better he looks … He just has a natural feel to the game. I know he’s young into football, as well, so I think he’s going to be another good player for a long time.”
8. The Pats will be the NFL’s sack kings
Really, worst to first? The LA Rams were tops in the NFL in 2020 with 53 sacks.
The Pats had less than half of that, with 24. They weren’t the worst, but were fairly close to the bottom.
Where are the 50-plus sacks going to come from, to give them a chance to be the best?
For starters, Judon and Josh Uche are studs. Can’t game plan for both. Then there’s Barmore, who’s going to be a force in the middle of the line. Add Van Noy and Hightower, who weren’t with the team last year, and the sack numbers are going to go up.
They’ll start off great against Miami, which has a porous offensive line. They could start with a six-spot and pile on from there.
9. They won’t have a 1,000-yard rusher
It’s certainly set up for Damien Harris to be that guy. And with the expectation of the Patriots being a tough, physical, ground and pound team, it makes sense that he would hit that threshold. And no surprise if it happens.
So why won’t he hit the mark?
First, he tends to get hurt. That’s his history. Missing time won’t help him hit the 1,000-yard plateau.
Second, teams are going to load up the box assuming the Patriots are going to run.
That will set up Jones to pass the ball more than expected, and give Harris less carries. Plus, the feeling here is Stevenson will eventually push him for reps, also cutting into Harris’ stats.
10. Jakobi Meyers will be team MVP
Would love to put Judon in this spot, because defense is going to win a lot of games for the Patriots this year. But it’s a passing league. And Meyers remains the Patriots best receiver.
Smith and Henry are also possibilities, and will have an impact, but teams will focus on them, leaving it up to the receivers to keep the sticks moving.
Meyers has basically inherited Edelman’s role, and while he doesn’t fit the prototype of a Patriots slot receiver, he has one requisite in spades: he gets open.
“He’s confident. His catch radius is unbelievable,” Deion Branch told the Herald recently.
“He’s not a speed guy but he gets open, that’s the point of playing receiver. It’s not about who’s the fastest and all this stuff, because some fast guys can’t even get open. Jakobi’s always open and he catches everything.”
Bonus prediction: Best guess, Jones will throw 22 TD passes, for 3,400 yards, with 9 picks. Seems like a fair Year 1 expectation.
Double bonus prediction:
Patriots upset Bucs, Week 4 — definition of the biggest bunch of hooey I hope sticks. Watching Tom Brady
Thursday night, it’s tough to go with the Patriots. It makes no sense. But there it is. A wild stab in the dark.