How to handicap the race
The race to run Boston City Hall dramatically reshapes after today’s preliminary election, with the top two vote-getters looking to capitalize on momentum and facing increased scrutiny from voters.
Front-runner Michelle Wu should snare the top spot if the polls are accurate, but could become a target in the coming weeks. She essentially skated without getting touched during the last year of the campaign.
If Wu does prevail, she’ll face an energized opponent who likely will challenge her on her far-left positions and policy ideas like providing free MBTA service to millions of riders.
City councilors Andrea Campbell and Annissa EssaibiGeorge and Acting Mayor Kim Janey are dueling for the second-place spot, according to all the recent polling. The only male candidate, John Barros, is trailing in last place.
Here are seven things to watch out for in the hours and weeks after today’s election:
Constituencies. Where will the traditional power players — business leaders, unions, city employees, parents of schoolchildren, Black ministers — line up after the preliminary? Some business leaders have been skittish in supporting Wu, so that could aid her opponent in the general. These groups could wield enormous power heading into the final election.
Pivoting. Which candidate will successfully pivot after the preliminary heading into the final? This is a chance for the final two candidates to finetune their positions and adjust their pitches to appeal to voters in the middle who may have sat out the preliminary.
Turnout. It’s historically dismal in preliminary elections. Which candidate was most successful in drawing support from their home district and voter base will likely get in the final election. Wu has the most broad-based support but how deep is it, and will young voters who support her actually turn out to vote? Will white, more conservative voters in neighborhoods like South Boston and West Roxbury line up behind Essaibi-George? Will black voters show up and lift Campbell or Janey? The answers to those questions will determine who wins in November.
Attacks. The race will get a lot more negative in the fall election, and several candidates have super PACs that could ratchet up the attacks. Watch for unattributed handoffs to the media — courtesy of political consultants. Whoever can successfully weather the coming storm will probably win.
Scrutiny. Wu and the rest have endured little actual scrutiny during the preliminary campaign — except for a few minor kerfuffles. That will change. Look for examinations of the candidates’ voting records and positions to help voters sort out who to support.
Losers. Where does their support go after the preliminary? Endorsements are overrated but if a losing candidate lends their organizational support to one of the finalists it could make a difference.
Momentum. Which candidate will come fast out of the gates and seize the big Mo? It may not be Wu since she is supposed to win. But if Wu’s margin of victory is bigger than expected that could give her a huge advantage heading into the fall