Wastewater tracker: Descent could show region heading in right direction
The Boston-area coronavirus wastewater tracker has been a roller coaster this summer amid the delta variant, but local infectious disease experts hope a recent descent in the COVID-19 tracker is the beginning of a sustained downward trend.
The south of Boston virus samples have plummeted by more than 50% in the last couple of weeks, while the north of Boston COVID sewage samples have dropped by close to 40%.
“My prediction has been we’re going to be in a downward trend, but I don’t know exactly when that will be,” said Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. “This could be the earliest sign that we’ll be heading in the right direction.” The COVID wastewater levels indicate future virus cases in the community.
The wastewater tracker has been fluctuating quite often during the last two months, noted Davidson Hamer, a Boston University specialist in infectious diseases.
“Maybe this is the beginning of a downward trend, which would be fantastic, but it’s too early to tell,” he said.
Massachusetts has had a spike of coronavirus cases amid the more highly contagious delta variant, but cases appear to be plateauing during the last few weeks. Breakthrough infections went down last week for the first time in months.
“To ensure the wastewater levels decrease, we need to increase the community level of full vaccination,” Ellerin said.
The latest data from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority’s study to track wastewater for indicators of COVID shows the southern region daily average is now 244 copies of viral RNA per milliliter. That compares to the daily average of 497 copies from two weeks earlier.
The northern region daily average is now 233 copies of viral RNA per milliliter. That compares to the daily average of 375 copies from a couple of weeks ago.
Sewage samples are taken multiple times a week for the MWRA’s study. The study is being conducted by Biobot Analytics, a spinoff from an MIT research project.