COULD MAC CARRY PATRIOTS TO A WIN? HIS TEAMMATES HAVE NO DOUBTS
FOXBORO — Sooner or later, Mac Jones will need to throw the Patriots offense on his shoulder.
The clock will flash 2:00, maybe less. He’ll holster a timeout or two. Gillette Stadium will buzz, a hive of anxiety and excitement. One question will capture the entire moment. OK, kid. Whatcha got?
This is the curiosity that should surround Jones, not how far and often he can launch the ball deep; angst disguised as a conversation topic that infected TV, radio and social media this week. Yes, Jones’ average depth of target ranks among the lowest in the league.
He’s a rookie. It’s Week 3. And these are the teams Jones has faced so far: the blitz-happy Dolphins who forced the ball out immediately on half his dropbacks, and a Jets defense running a Cover 3 system the Patriots have beaten for a decade by throwing short passes. To wit: James White led the Pats with six catches last weekend, and they left town with a 19-point win.
Here’s the real dirty secret the Patriots left behind in Dirty Jersey: aside from Damien Harris’ 26-yard touchdown run, a superhuman effort aided by hilarious tackling, their running game was grounded. That’s a problem.
The Patriots are built to zag. They are designed to bulldoze NFL defenses that have grown lighter and faster to combat the proliferation of spread offenses. They’ve invested in their offensive line, running backs and tight ends. The returns on those investments have been slow.
And they aren’t about to pick up Sunday.
The Saints boast a top-5 run defense, according to every metric; from yards allowed per carry (2.8) to Pro Football Focus grades and Football Outsiders’ popular efficiency metric, DVOA. Last week, New Orleans bottled up Christian McCaffrey, an All-Pro who couldn’t shimmy or shake his way to anything better than three yards a carry.
You think Harris scares them? Well, Jones might.
“He was someone that we were really high on,” Saints coach Sean Payton said of the rookie Wednesday. “I think he processes information fast. At Alabama if you watch closely his tape, the ball comes out, decisions are made fast. I think he sees the field horizontally as well as vertically well. He has the arm to make the throws that you want.
“His decision-making and processing are what I felt were really strong suits with him, and I think he’s handling it well.”
Jones’ decision-making and rapid processing are most evident in no-huddle situations. The Pats called for Jones to run no-huddle possessions in all three preseason games, and he drove the offense down for scores. This is how he may need to close against the Saints, who are expected to bounce back from their Carolina loss, which followed a 35-point throttling of Green Bay in Week 1.
“We’ll see the team that played in Week 1,” Pats defensive captain Devin McCourty said. “No doubt about that.”
The Patriots’ confidence in New Orleans is the same they hold in Jones. It’s curious, because confidence grows from demonstrated ability. And Jones hasn’t demonstrated anything yet in the fourth quarter of a regular-season game because Harris fumbled his shot at leading a comeback against Miami.
The best he’s done is come close and execute in practice and the preseason. But that’s enough for him, and his teammates.
“Mac’s confidence is on a 10,” safety Adrian Phillips said Wednesday. “He’s a different dude. Seeing that from a rookie is cool.”
Right guard Shaq Mason declared he’s “extremely confident” that Mac could lead a 2-minute drill with the game on the line. Defensive back Jonathan Jones agreed, and explained why.
“Leadership,” Jones said. “For a young guy, he’s just got a leadership quality, a command; knowing where to put guys, and being able to move at a good pace.”
The stats back him up. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones has been the ninth-fastest quarterback in the league taking the ball from snap to throw. He’s been the most accurate, when accounting for dropped passes and throwaways. And Jones has been accountable for failing to seize on the noted deep opportunities, such as a long touchdown to Nelson Agholor he missed during the executed double-pass trick play at the Jets.
What the rookie won’t do, however, is force the ball, risking the end of a game-winning drive or the chance to lead one at all.
“Plays will come,” he said Wednesday. “You can’t chase plays that aren’t there, or you think might be there.”
Jones’ point: you need to know. You need to see it. Or at very worst believe, as he does and the Patriots do based on their practice and preparation together. Then, reap the rewards.
“That’s always been the best part about football,” Jones said, “When you talk about something or you put something in, and then it goes how you thought it was gonna go and you got the right look, and then you hit it.”
Like dreaming about a successful 2-minute drill during the week and leading one on Sunday.
Like all the great quarterbacks must do someday.