How BB schemes a Bucs’ upset

To deflate the Tom Brady versus Bill Belichick narrative soaking up all the oxygen around Foxboro this week, Patriots defenders will remind everyone they’re playing the Buccaneers on Sunday, not just Brady.

And they’re right.

Their task, and by extension Belichick’s, is to defend the entire Bucs offense, one of the NFL’s deepest and most dangerous. Before Belichick can confront Brady, he first must plan for Pro Bowl wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, old friend Rob Gronkowski and potentially Antonio Brown. Next comes Tampa’s top 10 offensive line.

Once all that’s settled, comes Brady. Because quarterback is both the most glorified and dependent position in sports.

Case in point: Brady’s final games in New England were losses at the hands of former Patriots who understood how to isolate him from his help. In 2019, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores blitzed frequently on early downs to stymie Brady’s run game and double-teamed Julian Edelman in passing situations to clinch a regularseason upset. Next, Titans coach Mike Vrabel flooded the field with coverage to blanket the Pats’ middling receivers and frustrate Brady, blitzing on only 8% of his dropbacks during a Wild Card win.

Blitz or no blitz, man or zone, there is no magical game plan for a great quarterback, let alone the greatest. The answers on any given Sunday hinge on how the available talent matches with the opposing talent. Because of that disparity, the Patriots are decided home underdogs against the Bucs.

So how can Belichick beat Brady? Here’s a start:

1.Shadow Mike Evans with J.C. Jackson

Before every passing snap Sunday, Brady will survey the field searching for the best 1-on-1 matchup to exploit. Then, he will ruthlessly pick on that matchup over and over.

It’s how he’s operated for years. So before Brady can pull the trigger, Patriots should determine those match-ups for him. Shadowing Evans with Jackson is a sensible starting point, because the Pats cannot survive a bad game from their No. 1 corner. Therefore, they might as well gamble he can stifle the Bucs’ No. 1 option.

Jackson possesses the skill set necessary to handle Evans, a physical downfield threat whom Brady trusted last week to win deep against Rams All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey. Evans has seen more targets on intermediate and deep passes than any Bucs pass-catcher, and perhaps more importantly, 60% of all of his targets have been on routes 10 yards or more downfield. Defending those passes is Jackson’s sweet spot.

Since entering the league three years ago, Jackson has allowed one of the lowest passer ratings on deep balls of any defender, according to Pro Football Focus. By stapling Jackson to Evans, who primarily aligns out wide, the Pats can also tilt coverage toward Brady’s other weapons and/or over the middle on passing downs.

Godwin takes 62% of his snaps in the slot, where safeties or linebackers can help nickelback Jonathan Jones with an occasional double team or be nearby in short zone. The same applies to Gronkowski, who should draw Adrian Phillips, the Pats’ best tight end stopper, in man-to-man coverage on crucial downs. Against the Bucs, the name of the game is pick your poison.

At least this poison won’t kill them immediately.

2. Invite the Bucs to run on early downs

Any snap where Brady hands the ball off Sunday should be considered a victory for the Patriots.

Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are solid, but unimaginative runners. Both have fumbled this year. The sight of Brady whipping around off playaction on first-and-10 is scarier than either of them taking a carry.

The Pats can goad Tampa into a higher first-down run rate by showing more two-high coverage shells and fielding six defensive backs instead of their preferred five. From two-high shells, the Pats can rotate a safety down late in run support or use that rotation as a disguise against Brady if he’s executing a play fake, believing he’d read a different coverage pre-snap. The Pats have fielded six defensive backs on 10.4% percent of snaps thus far with middling success.

The Bucs are averaging 3.9 yards per carry on first downs this year. If they produce that same average Sunday, that’s an edge for the Patriots.

3. Disguise new sim pressures on passing downs

Brady once famously declared he has all the answers to the test, meaning he’s seen every defense known to man. Belichick needs to make him think twice.

There’s no new coverage or blitz Belichick can concoct in a league that’s 75 years old, but he must introduce several pressure wrinkles the Patriots have yet to put on tape to affect Brady. Traditional blitzes won’t unsettle him, with Brady unloading the ball in an average of 1.93 seconds and posting a 107.1 passer rating against the blitz, per PFF. Simulated pressures are the Pats’ ticket to the backfield.

Simulated pressures are defensive calls that rush three players from the line of scrimmage and another from the second or third level of the defense who replaces a traditional rusher that drops into coverage. They present a pre-snap illusion of pressure, then create actual confusion in blocking assignments. Executing opponent-specific pressures are not new for the Pats. Last Sunday, they debuted a new blitz from their quarter package — a grouping with seven defensive backs — against the Saints, who blocked it up in the first half. New Orleans’ success later discouraged Belichick from pressuring Jameis Winston in the fourth quarter, when he converted a third-and-7 facing a standard rush on a game-sealing final drive. Against Brady, they need more than one changeup. They need a circle change, knucklecurve and even an eephus pitch to affect him, and disguise their intentions on every passing down.

“There’s no one better at recognizing what the defense is doing better than Tom,” safeties coach Brian Belichick said.

Rotate safeties, have linebackers roam and stand up defensive linemen. Do whatever it takes to twist up Brady’s protection and prevent him from detecting a coverage tell, and then exploiting it.

4. Repel them in the red zone

This is an evergreen key for any defense facing an elite offense: bring your best inside the 20-yard line.

The Patriots can win if they hold the Bucs to field goals instead of touchdowns with regularity. Gronkowski is an obvious go-to target for Brady in the red zone and has been since 2010. The trouble is Evans and Godwin — who scored a 2-yard rushing touchdown last week — have both seen more targets inside the 20 this year. Brady will go anywhere with the ball, and the Pats must prepare for every possibility to pull off the seemingly impossible.