PATS OFFENSE MUST START FASTER - AND IT CAN THROUGH HENRY, SMITH
FOXBORO — Midway through last week’s game at Houston, Bill Belichick kneeled before his defense on the sideline with a message. “Look, this game is about down and distance,” he bellowed, as captured by a team media crew. “Personnel’s going to change on every play, OK? Get back on track. That’s what this game is.” The Patriots had been beaten on four straight scoring drives to start the game, a supposedly hapless rookie quarterback, Davis Mills, tearing them apart. Most of the offensive heavy lifting had been undertaken by a rotating cast of players around Mills. But Belichick wanted his defense to ignore them.
Because the Texans were actually managing Mills — and by extension their offense — based on time and place, not personnel, and had thereby seized control of the game. Belichick’s point was to reset the terms of engagement by playing the situation instead of the men across the line of scrimmage.
Setting the terms of engagement has been a season-long battle for the Patriots. When their defense hasn’t posted a first-quarter shutout, they’ve trailed every opponent but the Jets. The Pats rank 26th in scoring offense overall and first-quarter points scored.
Aside from the trouble of trailing early, starting slowly has also kept the Patriots’ two highest-paid offensive players off the field. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith have played together on fewer than 25% of snaps this season. They were supposed to be the new suns around which the Pats’ offense revolved — a remade, multiple attack packed with possibility.
Instead, the Patriots have routinely been forced into predictable passing situations, and Henry and Smith have combined for roughly as many receiving yards as Jakobi Meyers.
“There’s more to those two guys being on the field together. There’s no question about it, in all situations that we’re looking forward to trying to develop,” Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said of the tight ends this week. “Hopefully, we can gain control of the games. And at that point, then it’s kind of dealer’s choice what you want to use as opposed to, we’ve got to be in our (three-receiver) group because we’re more in a throwing mode or what have you.”
There are signs of hope. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones directed the offense to its first opening-drive points of the season in Houston, with Damien Harris scoring a touchdown to conclude an efficient 10-play, 60-yard march. That score would have been followed by another touchdown had Harris not fumbled at the goal line on the next series.
Meyers believes the Patriots are making progress. “Everybody’s locking in, and not just dipping our toes in the water,” he said Wednesday. “Making sure we jump in, ready to go from the time the ball’s kicked off. The season’s a long season, so we feel like we’re getting better every game, and that was a good step in the right direction last week.”
This Sunday, that step needs to stretch into a leap.
The Cowboys (4-1) lead the league in first-quarter scoring. Not only that, but Dallas is averaging nine points in the first quarter — more than the Patriots have been averaging in the entire first half. It’s one of the many reasons the Cowboys are slated as 3.5-point favorites. Assuming the Pats defense does its part — keeping the Cowboys to one score in the first quarter — there are paths for the offense to stake an early lead. Dallas’ defense ranks second-worst in covering tight ends, according to Football Outsiders’ popular efficiency metric, DVOA. Featuring Henry and Smith in the first quarter should lead to easy throwing opportunities for Jones, particularly off play-action. The Cowboys have allowed a league-worst 149.1 passer rating to quarterbacks who specifically target tight ends on play-action passes, per Sports Info. Solutions. Furthermore, Dallas is allowing opponents to average five yards per carry from 12 personnel groupings (one running back, two tight ends). So after reviving their run game in Houston, the message to the Patriots offense this week should be simple: beef up and bulldoze them.
Because if they fail, Jones will be forced to throw at a Cowboys defense that has relished playing from ahead. Star corner Trevon Diggs, a college teammate, leads the league with six interceptions. One more could put his former quarterback away, and push the Pats to 2-4.
“He’s sideline to sideline making plays, playing his technique, and you have to be aware of where he is at all times. He makes plays,” Jones said. “It’s not just him, too. There are other guys on the team that are also making plays, and they all play hard, and they play together. It’s a really good all-around defense. They play together as a team, and we’ve got to be ready to go.
“But obviously, you can’t be afraid of anyone.”
Only the situation into which they could drop you and your team.