Omicron’s political fallout for Biden & Democrats
As Americans were traveling and gathering in prepandemic fashion for Thanksgiving, news broke that the World Health Organization designated the omicron variant of the coronavirus a new “variant of concern.” In response, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 900 points on Black Friday.
Though key details about omicron’s transmissibility are unknown, it’s already clear that the variant may well undermine America’s pandemic recovery efforts — and in turn, could further complicate the Democratic party’s ability to maintain their congressional majorities in next year’s midterm elections.
The Democrats’ 2022 political fortunes hinge in large part on Americans feeling significantly better about the pandemic and the economy by next fall.
When the delta variant became widespread over the summer, President Biden’s leadership often proved to be inconsistent and indecisive. As a result, his approval rating declined and never really recovered, which indicates that omicron could have a similarly deleterious political impact for the president and his party, further accentuating the president’s weaknesses when it comes to handling unforeseen crises.
Early on in his term, Americans largely felt that Biden was making good on his pledge to end the pandemic. The relief bill passed, his administration dramatically accelerated of the pace of vaccinations, and his approach to the pandemic was the antithesis of his predecessor’s.
But as the delta variant surged, Americans grew frustrated over the lingering virus and the White House’s seemingly mixed messaging on the effectiveness of vaccines. At the same time, inflation and consumer prices increased, and supplychain bottlenecks and labor shortages continued to undercut the quality and speed of economic services that American consumers are used to.
Prior to the delta variant, most polls showed Biden’s overall approval rating in the mid 50s, and his approval on the pandemic hovered in the high 60s. As things currently stand, less than one-half of Americans (44%) approve of Biden, while 50% disapprove, per an Economist/ YouGov poll.
Pandemic-related economic discontent is one of the driving forces behind Biden’s low approval ratings, and the introduction of omicron variant will only complicate the administration’s efforts to turn the economy around.
It creates an especially difficult environment for the Federal Reserve, putting their goals of lowering inflation and ensuring a strong labor market into conflict.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is taking a careful step toward raising interest rates to tame inflation: “to get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need … price stability. And in a sense, the risk of persistent high inflation is also a major risk to getting back to such a labor market.”
Pandemic-induced supply chain bottlenecks are also animating voters’ economic dissatisfaction. On Monday, President Biden invited several retail CEOs to the White House to discuss supply chain issues and inflationary pressures, a move intended to reassure Americans that goods would be on the shelves for the holidays and to tout his administration’s efforts to ease bottlenecks.
That being said, the economic uncertainty brought on by the omicron variant makes it hard to predict whether President Biden’s efforts will meaningfully help the supply chain issues or improve consumer sentiment.
Democrats now need to walk the fine line between advocating for the public health measures necessary to keep Americans safe, while also keeping in mind that Americans have grown tired and wary of the pandemic.
Even though most Americans are vaccinated and many support mitigation measures, Democrats could be putting themselves in a politically dangerous position if they go too far and become associated primarily with restrictions, mandates and the related G.O.P. attacks against them.
To be sure, there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the omicron variant and its impact. However, we can say with near-certainty that the variant will prolong the pandemic, and will put the president and his party in an increasingly perilous political position.