Bill’s last cards to play against Allen
You know there are no more secrets between the Patriots and their opponent when Bill Belichick is sharing his keys to victory with the media.
“I think the key for us is,” Belichick told reporters Thursday, “when we get (the Bills) in third down, we’ve got to be able to convert on third down. If they convert on third down, then literally you’re out there all day. That’s pretty much what happened in the second game.”
That second game, a 33-21 Buffalo triumph in Week 16, is notable for reasons beyond serving as a lesson in how third downs work. It shifted the tectonic plates underneath the Pats-Bills rivalry.
That wire-to-wire win all but guaranteed a second straight division title for the Bills, ratifying them as the longstanding best team in the AFC East. It vaporized any ghosts that may have been lingering in Foxboro after Buffalo’s 38-9 beatdown last year on Monday Night Football. It underlined the Bills have achieved sustained excellence and proved they should challenge the Patriots for years to come.
Driving this shift was Josh Allen.
Before Week 16, Allen’s only performance against the Patriots was the 2020 Monday night embarrassment. But back then, Belichick’s defense was held together by league castoffs and scotch tape.
In December, boasting the NFL’s top-ranked defense, the Pats were still helpless. First, they forced Allen into checkdowns versus soft zone, a patience test he passed by leading scoring drives that lasted 10 and 13 plays. Then they leaned into more man coverage and introduced more exotic looks, which Allen thwarted, too, rendering everything Belichick threw at him ineffective.
Which all begs the question: what now?
Which cards can Belichick play against a quarterback capable of beating a defense with his arm or legs, a player whose improvement as a passer is unprecedented in league history and, at least for one day, checkmated him, the greatest coach in the NFL?
Well, according to safety Adrian Phillips, the same cards.
Because for the same reason Belichick felt comfortable discussing keys with reporters — no secrets — Phillips could disclose Thursday the Pats’ game plan will largely remain unchanged. “Basically it’s tightening down on the bolts of how we want to play this guy, and then you throw a little stuff here and there just to switch it up a little bit,” Phillips said Thursday. “But they know us, we know them. … The main adjustments would just be fixing what we messed up on last game, and not letting that happen again.”
Phillips’ admission undercut a long-held belief in New England that Belichick can simply scheme up victories. The truth is his brain matters to the extent his players can carry it to the field, where they’ll most certainly be shorthanded Saturday. Safety Kyle Dugger and defensive tackle Christian Barmore are both questionable with injuries that recently caused them to miss a week of practice and get carted off, respectively.
The Patriots have limits, limits defined by their available talent and the problems Buffalo will present that they must answer. Because the Bills’ spread offense is captained by a Pro Bowl quarterback and armed with top-shelf weapons, the Pats cannot simply line up and win. The proof lies under center.
Since Allen developed into a refined passer, Buffalo has gone 3-1 against Belichick and averaged more than 26 points per game. This is why the Patriots must triumph in high-leverage situations Saturday, such as third down and inside the red zone, especially if Allen doesn’t gift them any turnovers.
Because the Bills will move the ball, and they know how the Pats should continue to defend them.
The Patriots will mix their base Cover 3 zone with lots of man-to-man because like most quarterbacks, Allen performs worse against man coverage than zone. They will play fewer than 10% of their snaps in 3-4 defense because that’s been their plan, and Buffalo spreads the field. And the Pats will rush Allen with a contain mindset, understanding he can do just as much damage as a scrambler as a rocket-armed passer.
“It’s rushing, but pass rushing with discipline and awareness,” Belichick said. “If you miss him and he gets loose, that’s going to be a big problem.”
Basically, Saturday night will hinge on boring football truisms: fundamentals, mental toughness and a team’s best players playing their best when their best is demanded.
If Matt Judon can simply rebound from a terrible last month, when he recorded only a single QB hit, the Patriots’ pass rush will sharpen.
If J.C. Jackson can limit Stefon Diggs to fewer than seven catches, which he grabbed last month in Foxboro, the Pats’ pass coverage improves.
“This is exactly what (Jackson) wants,” Phillips said. “He wouldn’t have it any other way.”
And if Phillips and Devin McCourty can bait Allen into an ill-advised throw with pre-snap disguise, they might catch Allen’s first interception against the Patriots in more than a year. That is how they win.
Because by now, the wrinkles have been ironed out. The schemes are settled. The time for talk and gameplanning is over.
The time for AFC East history is nigh.
“It’s all about us. It’s nothing about the Bills,” Jackson said Thursday. “They’ve got a good team, but we’re good, too. And we’ll see Saturday night.”