The Patriots will beat the Bills if ...

Any given Sunday. Or in this case, any given Saturday, any team can beat any other team. That’s the well-known adage, anthem and rallying cry for underdog teams. And during Wild Card Weekend, it hits close to home. Meet your New England Patriots.

Against the Bills, the Patriots fall into the “underdog” category. It’s unfamiliar territory for Bill Belichick’s team, but with a rookie quarterback, and a team that sputtered down the stretch, the handle fits.

They are indeed an underdog. Heading into Buffalo, with the checkmarks going to the Bills in many of the important categories, save for head coach, it’s a much different dynamic than what New Englanders are used to seeing this time of year.

But that doesn’t mean they can’t win. It just makes the path to victory more about having certain elements fall their way.

So what has to happen for the Patriots to take down the Bills, who are favored by four in Round 3?

Let’s just say, the Patriots will win if:

The good Patriots show up

Belichick’s team has had a Jekyll & Hyde identity throughout the year. At times, they look like they could beat anybody. That was the case during the sevengame win streak midway through the year. During other points, they’ve been a mistake-prone mess, looking anything but world-beaters. So which personality shows up in Buffalo?

If it’s the one that’s efficient, plays clean football, relies on its strengths, and sticks to the formula, they’ll have a chance.

“It’s up to us to get it done,” safety Adrian Phillips said Thursday. “We have another opportunity to get it done in the biggest game of our season so far. So if we can do what we’re supposed to do, then it’ll end the right way.”

They win the turnover battle

For the most black and white indicator of wins and losses for the Patriots, look no further than turnovers. When they’re on the right side of the turnover war, they’re 8-0. When not, they’re 1-6. And if they finish with the same amount of turnovers, they’re 1-1. The math doesn’t lie.

“We haven’t been getting turnovers in our losses, and we noticed that,” said Phillips. “It’s really up to guys just finishing plays. When we get those opportunities, you have to finish it.”

Bad Josh Allen makes an appearance

The last two times the Patriots hosted the Bills in Foxboro, Allen was as good as it gets. When he’s on, it’s nearly impossible to take down the Bills.

But he does toss in a few stinkers on occasion, sometimes in bad weather. Allen even disclosed this week he has a tough time in the cold because his toes go numb. “I got bad circulation within my feet. My toes get really cold and they go numb a little bit,” he said this week.

With frigid conditions expected Saturday night, Allen, who kills teams with his mobility, might have a tougher time.

They attack Allen

In the past two games the Bills won, the Patriots weren’t particularly aggressive in defending Allen. They sat back and waited for him to make a mistake. That has to change. They won’t get bad Josh Allen if they aren’t aggressive and get after him, and make him think twice about running.

Or so says NBC analyst and Patriots Hall of Famer Rodney Harrison.

“They gotta hit Josh. They can’t allow him to be a big part of that running game,” said Harrison, when reached Thursday. “Buffalo is going to try to offset things and run the football a little bit, and he’s a big part of that. But every time he runs the football, they gotta punish him.” Harrison also doesn’t want to see the Patriots sit back. Pressure is the key.

“I’m not sitting back and playing soft coverage the entire game and letting Josh Allen sit back there for six seconds, run around, and make incredible plays,” said Harrison. “I’m coming after his (butt).”

They don’t fall behind

The Patriots aren’t built to make comebacks, especially against a team that has the best defense in the league.

Starting fast on both sides of the ball is imperative. “When you’re playing against teams, maybe even the first two drives, like when they’re going through their script, it’s pivotal for us be able to get them to third down, and get off the field,” said Phillips. “The past few games, we haven’t been able to do that, and we’ve been playing from behind. It’s just so much harder to do that.”

Defense gets off field on third down

Speaking of which, during the Week 16 loss to the Bills, the Patriots couldn’t get off the field all game long.

Allen & Co. converted on 6-of-12 third-down chances, while making 3-of-4 fourth-down attempts.

“They didn’t make a punt last game, so it’s definitely critical,” Phillips said when asked about doing a better job on third down. “You get down to the last drive with a chance to win, and we get them to third down a couple times and can’t get off the field, you saw how that game was for us. We have to get off the field.”

Special teams doesn’t mess up

One of the biggest disappointments, and headscratchers of the season has been the performance of the special teams units. Belichick puts a huge emphasis on the third phase, only this unit has come up short. Between blocked punts, miscues, costly penalties, the unit hasn’t lived up to its billing. That has to change.

“The only thing that matters is what we do moving forward,” said special teams coach Cam Achord. “As long as you’re putting your best product on the field, you’re doing techniques fundamentally sound, hopefully you can do enough to make a positive impact in the game.”

Let Mac Jones cook, to a degree

All season long, the Patriots have done a good job protecting their rookie quarterback, and not having too much of the burden fall on him. It’s the playoffs now.

The Patriots can’t be afraid to turn Mac loose if that’s what’s needed.

Said Harrison: “You can’t protect him, you can’t try to baby him, you just gotta let him play.”

Belichick delivers master plan

Ultimately in Round 3, the Patriots will win if Belichick once again outwits his counterpart, and draws up another master plan to beat the more talented team, specifically on defense.

The onus is on Belichick to devise the X’s and O’s to take down Allen.

“I think a big part of this, will depend on his game plan,” Harrison said of Belichick. “When he comes up with those game plans, and the defense has confidence, that’s when they play their very best.”