When will the pandemic end?
We’re all asking the same question: When will this seemingly endless pandemic end?
Paul Duprex, a molecular virologist at the helm of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Vaccine Research and formerly director of cell & tissue imaging at Boston University’s National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratory, tackled that question in a followup to a New Year’s editorial on having hope in 2022.
First, he advises, you need to define what’s considered a pandemic vs. an epidemic. Here’s his summary:
Pandemic: An epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020 by the World Health Organization.
Epidemic: The occurrence of more cases of disease than expected in a given area or among a specific group of people over a particular period of time.
“By this definition, the pandemic ends when the virus is no longer prevalent throughout the world or in multiple countries or regions,” Duprex said.
That’s the headline we’re itching to write. Duprex explains what happens next influences just how quickly we can pivot out of this pandemic.
First up, vaccines. “A vaccine or an effective treatment is developed — this would be the most desirable option. Think of polio — an epidemic, not a pandemic — which came to a medical end with a vaccine,” he said. The mRNA vaccines seem to be doing the trick, but they need to be jabbed worldwide.
Next up, this wildfire burns itself out. “Infection and death rates plummet — also considered a medical end. That’s how the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 ended — those infected either died or developed immunity,” Duprex said.
We tackled that story and history tells us the Spanish flu has never disappeared, it just faded. The flu whipped around the world in 1918 with such intensity that 500 million people were infected, which accounted for one-third of the global population at the time. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 in the U.S., according to the CDC.
The chance of that scenario today is slim due to high vaccination rates.
Finally, Duprex says, “people simply get tired of living in fear, and learn to live in a world with the disease. This is considered a social ending, which is not an actual end since the disease itself doesn’t go away. In this situation, the disease may continue to spread, which can delay the medical end.”
We seem to be entering that phase.
“Learning to live in a world with COVID-19 doesn’t mean permanent quarantine. We can live our lives with a few modifications,” Duprex says.
That’s how this pandemic ends. Map out personal hurdles — elderly or infants in your circle, for instance — and consider what’s best to flatten your curve. The vaccines work, that’s just a simple fact. Tests are very accurate. Common sense is always good.
Why the Spanish flu was so deadly wasn’t decoded until decades later. Pandemics tend to last two to three-plus years, according to published reports. But science could speed up that curve today. And, as is being widely reported, the omicron variant that causes milder infections could be a sign of the beginning of the end.
The trajectory of this virus remains unknown, but the path out is beginning to materialize. Living with this pandemic isn’t easy, but focusing on the finish line can help keep you sane this Sunday.