Boston Herald

5 things to watch for during Thursday’s release

- By Andrew Callahan acallahan@bostonhera­ld.com

The last offseason holiday is two days away. On Thursday, the NFL will release its 2022 season schedule at 8 p.m. The Patriots will play eight home games and nine on the road this season, after enjoying the inverse last year, when the league first implemente­d a 17-game schedule. Marquee kickoffs include two battles with the Bills, a reunion with Josh McDaniels, a trip to historic Lambeau Field and visits from old rivals Indianapol­is and Baltimore and the AFC champion Bengals.

Here’s what else to watch for Thursday:

1. The finish

It was once New England canon that under Bill Belichick, the Patriots always played their best football down the stretch.

The truth is, that hasn’t held up since 2017.

Over the past four seasons, the Pats are 13-12 in regular-season games played after Thanksgivi­ng. They haven’t posted a winning record in December in three years. Last season, the Patriots famously fizzled in December, despite coming off a bye week with the division at stake and the AFC’s No. 1 seed in hand.

That 1-4 finish prompted the front office to toughen up the roster this offseason, something director of player personnel Matt Groh spoke to after drafting offensive lineman Cole Strange in the first round. Even if the Patriots are, indeed, tougher, they should still hope for a soft landing come December and January.

As a borderline Wild Card team competing in an ascending AFC, they’ll need to separate themselves to clinch a playoff berth. Last season, only a home date with the lowly Jaguars saved them from going winless after the bye. It might take two cupcakes to celebrate this year — ideally visits from the Jets, Bears or Lions or maybe kickoffs with the Steelers, Dolphins or Vikings — to avoid a similar fate.

2. Familiar foes

The later the Patriots catch McDaniels and the Raiders the better.

Las Vegas will be at its most unpredicta­ble early in the season, as it adapts to new systems offensivel­y and defensivel­y. Meanwhile, the Pats will surely modify the playbook McDaniels left behind, but stay true to its core principles. Understand­ing that system intimately, plus the strengths and weaknesses of every player on the Patriots’ roster, McDaniels will have a more concrete idea of how to attack them than vice versa.

The Raiders’ advantage will be strongest in September and early October, before they produce more film for opponents to study and learn their tendencies under a new regime.

Case in point: in 2018, the Pats lost to a winless, listless Lions team playing its third game under Matt Patricia, who knew how the Patriots would play, even with limited film to study during the week. The Lions defense forced three straight three-andouts to start, then stuffed the Pats on thirdand-short to force a field goal, correctly anticipati­ng the Patriots would hurry to the line and run outside in that situation. Eventually, Detroit held Tom Brady and Co. to 10 points, their lowest scoring output of the season.

If the Pats are hoping to split with Miami in 2022, the later the better here, too. New head coach Mike McDaniel will be implementi­ng his own schemes in South Florida, where the Patriots have struggled enough as it is. As for the Bills games, the importance of those shouldn’t be lost on anyone. The AFC East runs through Buffalo now.

3. Bye, bye, bye

son success in the NFL. Midseason bye weeks do not ensure a healthier team, and later byes don’t guarantee success down the stretch (see: 2021 Patriots).

However, timing is still important. The Pats faced three teams last year who were coming off a bye, a league-worst disadvanta­ge. Plus, the advantage their bye week was supposed to supply was negated by the fact their next opponent, the Colts, had a break the same week.

Ideally, the Patriots’ next bye would fall between two road games, especially with long trips to Arizona, Minnesota and Las Vegas on the horizon. Or before a division battle, giving them extra time to prepare for the Dolphins or Bills.

4. Primetime

The Patriots played four nationally televised games last year, an average number for most teams, but a down year for them. Will that change?

Obvious contenders for nationally televised games are at Green Bay, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh, plus a division game against Buffalo or Miami. Others to watch: at Cleveland, versus Baltimore and versus Cincinnati.

The Patriots are 7-8 in primetime games the past three years.

5. Extra points

The NFL has approved the use of alternate helmets this season, meaning the Patriots can dust off their throwback red uniforms and play with Pat Patriot on their helmets for the first time since 2012. And the odds are looking good. Last month, veteran cornerback Jalen Mills posted a photo of the old helmet to his Instagram story, a photo that appeared to be taken inside the team facility.

On a different note, remember the suspension­s.

It’s unknown if/when or for how long the NFL might suspend Browns quarterbac­k Deshaun Watson for his alleged sexual misconduct during massage sessions that spanned from early 2020 to March 2021, which has since led 22 women to sue him. The Patriots will travel to Cleveland, where they might be favored if backup Jacoby Brissett is forced to start in Watson’s place. Last year, the Pats beat the Browns at home 45-7.

Out west, Cardinals All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will serve a six-game suspension to start the season. Hopkins ranks among the best weapons the Patriots will face all year. If they meet in September or early to midOctober, Arizona will be down to Marquise Brown, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore out wide.

And will the league pair the Patriots’ trip to Arizona with the Las Vegas trip? If so, look for the Pats to stay out west, as opposed to flying back and forth in the same 7-day span. … Up north, the Patriots will play their first regular-season contest in the Vikings’ U.S. Bank Stadium. They lost their only game there, a 41-33 defeat to the Eagles in

Super Bowl LII. … Will Aaron

Rodgers finally throw an intercepti­on against a Belichick defense? In three career games versus the Patriots, he’s completed 55.9% of his passes

— fifth-lowest against any team — and thrown four touchdowns to zero intercepti­ons. … Barring injury, the

Pats may go the entire season without facing a rookie quarterbac­k. Pittsburgh’s Kenny

Pickett is the only potential starter on their schedule.

 ?? ?? bye and sea
MAC JONES
There’s little correlatio­n between week placement
BILL BELICHICK
bye and sea MAC JONES There’s little correlatio­n between week placement BILL BELICHICK
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