It’s still Donald Trump’s Republican party
The results of three Republican primary races held last week — for North Carolina U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania governor and Pennsylvania U.S. Senate — make clear that the Republican Party is still Donald Trump’s party.
In each race, the Trump-backed candidates, who were by no means a shoein for the nomination at the outset of the campaign, either won or are presently poised to win, beating out establishment-backed candidates.
Taken together with J.D. Vance’s upset win in the Ohio Republican primary for U.S. Senate earlier this month — due in large part to Trump’s endorsement — the outcomes of Tuesday’s primary contests indicate that Donald Trump will remain a dominant figure in Republican politics through at least 2024, and could very well become the GOP presidential nominee.
In the North Carolina Republican primary for U.S. Senate, all candidates jockeyed for the former president’s support at the outset of the campaign — understandably so, as Trump’s backing of U.S. Rep. Ted Budd propelled Budd to a landslide victory. Budd won with 58.6% of the vote, compared to 24.6% for the runner-up candidate.
The two statewide Republican primaries in Pennsylvania are also proof of Trump’s remarkable sway. Trump endorsed two fringe candidates for governor and U.S. Senate — and now, at least one, and potentially both, will win their respective elections.
In the gubernatorial primary, the Trump-backed far-right candidate Doug Mastriano was able to drub his opponents and win 44% of the vote in a threeway race, even in the face of staunch opposition from the Republican establishment.
While Trump only officially endorsed Mastriano, who is currently a state senator, a few days before the primary election, the organizing principle of Mastriano’s campaign was essentially showing fealty to the former president.
Indeed, Mastriano played an instrumental role in pushing forward Trump’s conspiracy theories about the 2020 election — he began his campaign by leading an effort to overturn Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results and attended the “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021, where he breached a police barricade outside the Capitol building during the insurrection.
But perhaps the most closely watched primary on Tuesday was the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, where Trump’s support for celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz markedly boosted Oz’s chances against David McCormick, a former George W. Bush staffer and hedge fund CEO.
Prior to Trump’s endorsement of Oz, McCormick held a 6 point lead over Oz, 27% to 21% in a crowded Republican field, according to an Emerson poll at the time.
While the race is still too close to call, as I write this, Oz maintains a slight lead of 1,200 votes. Even though Oz may be edged out by McCormick in the end, the very fact that Oz is in this position is a testament to Donald Trump’s power over the GOP, even in a swing state like Pennsylvania.
Indeed, Trump’s ability to propel Oz — a TV doctor with questionable conservative credentials, who was polling well-behind McCormick weeks ago — to a position where he is within reach of winning a statewide Republican primary is evidence of Trump’s enduring influence.
Even if Oz does end up losing by a razor-thin margin, given the closeness of the race and Trump’s demonstrable impact, we can reasonably expect that McCormick will vie for Trump’s backing in the general election in order to turn out the Republican base.
To be sure, Trump did endure a “loss” on Tuesday night, as his efforts to support the re-election of U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who has been involved in numerous public scandals and is highly controversial even within his own party, did not result in a win.
That being said, Cawthorn clearly benefited from Trump’s endorsement, having only lost his primary by 2 points. As a result, state Sen. Chuck Edwards, the winner of the race, will now likely have to genuflect to Trump ahead of the general election campaign in order to turn out the base.
Ultimately, the results of Tuesday’s primaries — even if McCormick is able to squeak out a victory over Oz in Pennsylvania — are telling of Trump’s primacy within the party, much to the Republican rank and file’s chagrin.
Candidly, many establishment Republicans would likely welcome the chance to put Trump behind them, as these members understand that their political prospects in 2022 and 2024 will be in jeopardy if the party continues to focus on Trump’s backward-looking priorities and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, rather than on an agenda for the future.
Simply put, relitigating the 2020 election is the worst thing the Republicans can or should do if they are trying to build a strong base going forward. Voters, and particularly swingvoters, are focused on addressing the challenges of today — inflation, crime, energy costs and now, a catastrophic shortage of baby formula — not fighting about alleged voter fraud in the last election.
A forward-looking, moderate Republican agenda that offers solutions where Democrats have failed to provide them — while avoiding pandering to the party’s extreme fringes and relitigating past grievances — is essential for the party’s prospects in 2022, 2024 and beyond.
But if Tuesday’s election results are any indication, Republicans won’t be making this strategic pivot anytime soon, as the party cannot seem to escape the pervasive political powerhouse that is Donald Trump.