Of all the candidates, why DFA German?
The Red Sox capped off January with a pair of surprising designations for assignment.
First, they DFA’ed Matt Barnes to open a roster spot for veteran outfielder Adam Duvall. Then, they traded Barnes to the Marlins for Richard Bleier, and needed a spot for him, so they DFA’ed Franklin German.
Barnes came as a shock because he was the longest-tenured member of the bullpen, an All-Star in 2021, and had finished 2022 strong after months of struggles. He was heading into the second year of a two-year, $18.75 million extension with a club option for a third season.
German was surprising for entirely different reasons. He debuted in late September and made five relief appearances. Across four innings, he allowed eight earned runs, walked four, and struck out four. His rookie eligibility remains intact for the upcoming season.
The Sox acquired German and Adam Ottavino from the Yankees in January 2021, but chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom had his eye on the pitching prospect long before the rare trade between the rival teams. When the Yankees selected German in the fourth round of the 2018 draft, Bloom was one of the people in the Rays’ draft room who’d been eyeing him.
At the time of the trade, MLB Pipeline ranked the righty No. 24 in the Yankees’ system. A little over two years later, he currently holds the same spot in the Sox system.
Why German over any of the other DFA candidates on the 40-man? He’s young, club-controlled, a top-30 prospect, and throws in the mid-to-high 90s.
In other words, he’s tradeable. Sources tell the Herald that it was a tough decision, but the Sox see German being at a point in his career at which he’s someone they can trade for a truly promising return. That’s not necessarily the case for other DFA candidates.
For months, Bloom has maintained that having too much talent is a good thing, and that it’s OK to have too many top prospects who play the same position, because that kind of depth offers flexibility. But while that’s clearly the case for the infield, which accounts for six of their top 10 prospects (if you include INF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela) in MLB Pipeline, promising pitching is sparse.
On Thursday, The Athletic’s Keith Law revealed his organizational talent rankings, and he puts the Red Sox at No. 23, two spots better than they were when Bloom took over, and several paces behind the Orioles (3rd), Rays (5th), Yankees (14th), and Blue Jays (17th). Law’s biggest gripe? “Their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest.”
Remember when the Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski before the 2019 season ended? The payroll was bloated and the farm system was blighted, and ownership claimed he wasn’t the guy to fix either problem, so they hired Bloom. Well, amidst the longest postseason appearance drought in the National League, and with a farm system that never seemed to bear fruit, Phillies owner John Middleton begged Dombrowski to run his team, and he finally agreed midway through the 2020 offseason. Last season, they not only ended that postseason drought, but won the pennant, and Law ranks their farm one spot ahead of Boston’s.
No prospect ranking or organizational ranking is the be-all, end-all ruling. Last August, MLB ranked the Sox system No. 11, still behind the Orioles (1st) and Rays (8th), but ahead of the Yankees (12th) and Jays (20th). Even with Brayan Bello graduating from prospect status with Triston Casas not far behind, that ranking paints a very different picture. That said, MLB also noted, “The strength of the system is infielders.”
If the Sox had a young, healthy, formidable major-league pitching staff, the issue of in-house pitching could be shelved for another day. But among many risks and question marks, they’re relying on Chris Sale, who pitched 5.1 innings last year, and James Paxton, who didn’t pitch at all. And they’re going to field one of the oldest rosters — and pitching staffs, in particular — in the league.
If Law is right, and they don’t have a single legitimate big-league starter anywhere in their farm, where are the Red Sox going? They could give Shohei Ohtani $500 million next offseason, or, more likely, they can continue giving short-term contracts to pitchers coming back from injury or older arms trying to prove they still have something in the tank.
Shohei Ohtani
If you had ‘Shohei Ohtani will come to Boston’ on the list of things you’re trying to manifest this year, you should have been more specific.
Ohtani has signed a contract with a Boston athletic empire, it’s just not the Red Sox; he’s New Balance’s newest athlete.
This week, New Balance announced a long-term deal with the “once-in-ageneration athlete.”
The shoe and activewear brand was founded in Boston in 1906, only six years before Fenway Park opened. They’re an official sponsor of the Red Sox, among other MLB and professional sports teams.
Will the Sox make a bid for the two-way player who’s broken the mold? Barring an extension, Ohtani will be the belle of the free-agent ball next offseason, and is expected to exceed the $426.5 million extension his teammate, Mike Trout, signed in 2019. Trout is already the only player with a contract in excess of $365 million (Mookie Betts), but it’s already being speculated that Ohtani could command the league’s first $500 million deal.
Aside from Rafael Devers, the Sox have avoided paying several of their best homegrown players over the last two decades — Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts — but were willing to give out a handful of expensive deals to free agents in the earlyto-mid-2010s.
Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Pablo Sandoval each received a contract totaling $95-154 million, and the seven years and $217 million they gave David Price in 2015 was the richest pitching contract in MLB history at the time.
But other than Price, who helped win a ring in 2018, those big free-agent signings were busts, none of whom lasted more than three seasons (they traded Price after four). And since Bloom replaced Dombrowski in November 2019, the Sox have largely eschewed long-term contracts; before giving Masataka Yoshida a five-year deal in December, Trevor Story was the only player he’d signed for more than two years.
From a historical standpoint, Ohtani might balance the club’s cosmic scales; he’s the modernday Babe Ruth if the Bambino’s greatest pitching and hitting seasons had actually overlapped, and no one in Boston should scoff at the idea of cosmic scales after an 86-year curse-slash-drought.
In his first four of six
seasons with the Sox, Ruth only appeared as a hitter in 5-to-67 games each year. 1919, his final season in Boston, was the only true two-way season of his career; he led MLB with 29 home runs in 130 games as a hitter, and pitched 133 1/3 innings across 17 games, including 12 complete games, two games finished, and a save.
But after the infamous sale to New York, Ruth only pitched in five regular-season games in 15 seasons. Over the last two seasons, Ohtani has made 51 starts and hit in 312 games. In 296 1/3 innings on the mound, he’s struck out 375 batters and issued 88 walks. At the plate, he’s racked up 56 doubles, 14 triples, 80 home runs, 193 runs scored, 195 RBI, 37 stolen bases, and drawn 168 walks. As a pitcher, he has a 31.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate; as a hitter, he’s struck out 26.8% of the time, and walked 12.9% of the time.
As with last year’s roster, the 2023 pitching staff is full of short-term additions, so there would be plenty of room for Ohtani in the 2024 rotation.